"Amai, 'kgeloof da ge ze ziet vliegen"

This is only funny if you speak Flemish

3 exist, one of which had a ton of recent sales

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for TaW furlined (~20) + planets elfin deal (12)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046913396?time=1425168066 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046913396?time=1425196800 after

0.9*(20+12) = 28.8, rounding to 29

-> 29 keys

Sale 2:

sold for gifted phantasm jr employee (~20)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132527164?time=1425369600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198132527164?time=1425632041 after

No overpay needed since the mini is in pure

-> 20 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for GBH escorter + pro ks genuine apocofists (2.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106838027?time=1425884400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198106838027?time=1426026754 after

Will use this to update the escorter

Sale 4:

Sold for 16 keys pure:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083039535?time=1426727194 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083039535?time=1426575600 after

-> 16 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for aussie ft (16)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083039535?time=1426748400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083039535?time=1426921200 after

0.9*16 = 14.4, rounding to 14 keys

-> 14 keys

(Sale 6:)

Sold for DP samureye (34)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138670549?time=1427439600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138670549?time=1427539628 after

0.9*34 = 30.6, rounding to 31

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25437615 had a BO of 25

(-> 25 keys [reappears in this person's backpack later on, not sure if I can even use this])

Sale 7:

sold for stormy sola topi (15) + S. pro ks rocket (12.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138670549?time=1428044400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138670549?time=1428174965 after

0.9*(15+12.5) = ~24.75, rounding to 25

-> 25 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for aussie smg (8) lolwat

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127437576?time=1428217200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127437576?time=1428332755 after

0.9*8 = 7.2, rounding to 7

-> 7 keys OUTLIER

Sale 9:

Sold in a complex sale regarding a flies noh

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094394179?time=1429246917 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094394179?time=1429254000 after

Not using this/3complex5me

The minis:

Mini employee:

Sold for stormy conquist(10) + 10 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111347658?time=1424505600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111347658?time=1424629152 after

Stormy conquist sold for a bud when buds were 10 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153671421?time=1426834800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153671421?time=1426944896 after

Taking 10+10 = 20

Mini apocofists:

http://imgur.com/VChK6Rl volatilely (but steadily) sells between 4 - 6€ (~2.3 keys, rounding to 2.5)

Taking 2.5

Mini samur:

Sold + DbD glengarry (23) for DbD stahl (57)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059393010?time=1428735600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059393010?time=1428869748 after

taking 57-23 = 34

Taking 34

Minimini stahl:

recently outdated at 65-73, unsold at 57 for 2 days:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25705510

Taking 57

Mini pro ks rocket:

http://imgur.com/4MjzBX0 averagely sells between ~25-30€ = ~12.5 keys

Taking 12.5

Sales at:

Outliers and why

7 is an obvious outlier, theres generally people buying any unusual for ~7 (and compared to the other sales its plain low.

14 was a quicksale (and an otherwise empty backpack?). Outpost sale revealed he was looking for 17 keys, but got even less.

It sold several times with a B/O of 25 or lower, making anything above 25 arguably too high to be in range. Going to cap the range at the 25 sale

Final range: 16-25[

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3