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Hello and welcome to lowball trading, where we use the lowballs on people and then try to mark it for so damn high to make it believe it's worth something. Yet really... it isn't.
#LowballingGalore #LateNightSuggestion
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The Sales
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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25734807 - Sold for a Circling Peace Sign Familiar Fez (20*) + ~1 Key in Sweets.
20 + 1 = 21 Keys.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045523714?time=1429340400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045523714?time=1429426800
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http://gyazo.com/8df4e40ace6f33a0b9e227656d92ed5b - Sold on the Steam Community Market for $28.75
Receive: $25 / 2.45 = 10.20 > 10 Keys
Paid: $28.75 / 2.45 = 11.73 > 11 Keys
(2.45 was the average price back then.)
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Familiar Fez : http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25362540
- Current Buyout of 20 Keys. Since I'm busy with papers, I'll be lazy and use the buyout method on this.
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Seems right for the tier level of this hat. Alongside, my friend has been selling for more than a day off of TF2Outpost for a buyout of 24 keys and haven't received many offers close to his range. So, I'm believing this is an accurate representation for this hat.
10 keys looks more like outlier/qs, range is wide..
10 might, but I'm uncertain with how terrorwatt got priced for basically 15 to 25.
I guess a case could be made for 10 being SCM sale to not incude it in the range?
I'd argue that too. We don't know how quick SCM sales go, and even the 21 key sale went remarkably quick.
scm sales can be inaccurate due to the "recent sales" chart not showing what effect it was that sold. First example i can think of is a vivid plasma bone dome being sold for like 15 keys or something.
Steam market can definitely be weird. That's especially true for low tier effects, since there's a lot of undercutting across hats to get to the "standard unusual price" of about $30. Because of that, it's probably worth including in the market estimate the number of keys someone would have to sell to purchase it (that would mean about 13 keys here), and backing up with b/os where possible.
But yeah, looks like it might be a quicksell. That was the lowest sale price on the market for the fur-lined literally ever. Unfortunately it's not easy to verify market quicksell these days. I really miss trade.tf letting you choose to see closed listings, that was damn helpful for checking timing and effect on market sales.
SCM link for convenience:
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Fur-lined%20Fighter
And wow, the guy who sold it for the fez/etc it is trying to cut down the guy who bought it's current trade:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25746189
I don't get it, why did trade.tf stop doing that? Doesn't make much sense to me :/
That 21 key sale was actually off the market, I believe. I'm friends with the current owner and I seen him try to sale it a few days off of outpost.
Is this a heavy or all class hat?
Heavy hat.
This makes sense then.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25778552 - looks like CS:GO stuff? QS either way
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25787816 - offer of steaming snaggle + 2 keys pure
SCM sale is definitely an outlier.