"I like this hat. I like this effect. give me this hat"

2 exist, both have recent sales

The sales

Sale 1:

Sold for 61 keys + 1 bud (10)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107457846?time=1426402800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107457846?time=1426748400 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25242793 The trade, shows he was collecting

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25375735 quicksold the shot for 10 (51 keys in his bp + 10 from this trade = 61)

Buyer has too large of a gap to properly check (and many of the keys have vanished, probably invested in CSGO stuff)

61 + 10 = 71

-> 71 keys OUTLIER

Sale 2:

Sold for ghosts Jr hat of cards (53) + orbfire milkman (18) + black bills (3.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1423728000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1423814400 after

0.9*(53+18+3.5) = 67.05, rounding to 67

-> 67 keys OUTLIER

Sale 3:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25040385

Sold for secret nappers (~96)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1423900800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1424246400 after

0.9*95 = 86.4, rounding to 86

-> 86 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for blizzardy TC (60) + orbfire hotties hoodie (23) + steaming AA (~12)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008608496?time=1424764800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008608496?time=1424875985 after

No overpay on tc, mini has accounted for pure

60+0.9*(23+12) = ~91.5, rounding to 92

-> 92 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for beams merryweather (90)

http://backpack.tf/item/296055475 for http://backpack.tf/item/2040166070

Sale happened fast, so histories dont show properly

0.9*90 = 81

-> 81 keys

The minis:

Mini milkman: outdated at ~24

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24888595

Was up for sale at 1.5 buds (buds@12 at that time => 18 keys) when it sold in this trade

Taking 18

Mini nappers:

Sold for beams thirst blood (92) + 4 keys and 5 ref

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1425198768 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975208975?time=1428908400 after

Taking 96

Mini steaming AA

Sold for duped steaming noble:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151518726?time=1423987200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151518726?time=1424096790 after

noble was unsold at 1.5 buds (last seen march 27th; buds were 8 (1.5 = 12 keys))

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25302139

Taking 12

Mini TC:

Sold for ks aussie minigun (25) + 2 buds (24) + 14 keys pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008608496?time=1424937600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008608496?time=1425078659 after

0.9*25 + 14 + 24 = ~60 keys after overpay

Taking 60

Sales at:

Outliers and why

81 sale went within a day. between 81 and 92 is a sale that evenly spreads this range. Sales below 81 are relatively far below 81; due to that being a sale that happened in a day, Im inclined to say 67 and 71 are outliers. The fact that the 71 seller was collecting pure (which was then spent within a few days) supports this as well

Final range: 81-92

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3