Sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25756185 15.66 ref; 0.9 keys (1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25756768 16.33 ref; 0.95 keys (1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25760953 Red-Tape + Warrior's Spirit + Claid for 1 key (other items are worth around 3 ref together)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25768151 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25761848 1 key (1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25735336 1 key (3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25735404 1 key (3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25722075 1 key (5 days)

Classifieds:

http://i.imgur.com/vO6w60p.png

1 x 13.66 ref

4 x 14 ref

1 x 15 ref

1 x 15.66 ref

Most at 1 key

Low-end isn't the majority of sellers. I'll be suggesting a conservative drop.