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Meh.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25241067 - Sold for 1 bud (12 keys) + 2 keys (14 keys)
Sale 2
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095991791?time=1424066188
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095991791?time=1424073600
- Sold for a Bubbling Gentleman's Ushanka (11 keys). No overpay because it was offered.
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25501984 - Sold for 1 bud (5.5 keys) (Outlier)
Feel free to counter / support my proofs