"This is exactly 40 keys, Im just overpaying a lot since I really want your hat"

- The one that offered me this on one of my hats

Decided to see what it actually sold for

(Seeing how the hat it was offered on was a MN stovepipe (which is 3rd gen, not particularly high tier AND extremely available), I had my doubts about the 40..)

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for 14 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25673210 B/O of 17

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069611645?time=1429591325 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069611645?time=1429686000 after

-> 14 keys

Sale 2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198142975809 sold with a B/O of 2 buds (18)?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142975809?time=1427249582 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198142975809?time=1427266800 after

No clue what the actual return was

Sale 3:

Sold for bubbling tripplers (12) + conga (0.8)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065058693?time=1427210946 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065058693?time=1427266800 after

0.9*12.8 = ~12

-> 12 keys

Sale 3:

sold for ks aussie amby (16) + strange apparitions aspect (~1.1) + strange atomic punch (~0.2) + 2 ToD tickets (~0.9)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115735568?time=1425618441 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115735568?time=1425628800 after

0.9*(16+1.1+0.2) +0.9 = ~16

-> 16 keys

Sale 4:

Sold for a bud (11) + spec ks rust botkiller scatter (~1.5)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25196446 only been up for sale briefly, B/O 15

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074087052?time=1425230595 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074087052?time=1425369600 after

11+0.9*1.5 = ~12

-> 12 keys

other history changes have no outpost trades and no traceable/visible returns (as far as I can see).

Outliers?

It sold reasonably fast (in about a week) for 14 pure, but I have two sales below (at 12).

However:

- 1 of them had no advertisment at all

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25196446 had very poor advertisment it was listed twice (relisted for 15 almost instantly after its initial listing at 17) and has never been bumped.

Seeing how 12 sales are either without a bump or without advertisment at all and how 14 pure happened reasonably fast, Im capping the low end at 14.

Final range: 14-16 keys

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3