"Its just a jump to the left.. And then a step to the riiiiiight"

Found this hat in another price suggestion and started doing research to find out if it was an outlier or not. Might as well update it

Credits to Pebbingpebbs for sale 1 c:

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for a Mallard Pullover (308)

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1428476400

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1428562800

0.9*308 = ~275

-> 275 keys

Sale 2:

sold for a burning tyrantium helm (~159) + burning birdcage(~80) + steaming officers ushanka (~12) + collectors pro ks YER (7)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809?time=1427526000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093707809?time=1427660994 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25502135 cage had a B/O of 80

Steaming ushanka is outdated at ~14, but is being sold for 12

http://backpack.tf/u/76561198104347704

States he is quickselling, but has been up for 3 days already. Taking 12 for that

0.9*(159+80+12+7) = ~230

-> 230 keys

Sale 3:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25711375 seems to have sold with a B/O of 130?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993888396?time=1429554325 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993888396?time=1429599600 after

No visible return. Comments suggest it was a cash trade.

The comment section also indicates that the prices have been lowered after the offers (or even after the sales). Calling it a quicksale; It would be unfair to cap this at its B/O if the B/O has been altered, especially since a higher price already received an offer very fast after the post was created.

Sale 4:

Sold for screaming tiger square dance (~100):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091405345?time=1429991236 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091405345?time=1430290800 after

Definitely an outlier. Seeing how sale 3 went down in a few days with an initial BO of AT LEAST 130 in full pure [or cash even], this should not be in the range.

Minis were included in the sales were needed.

Final range:

Seeing how sale 3 was an iffy quicksale and sale 4 was even below that (also happened in a few days) Im going to exclude them from the range, as I doubt theyll properly display the value of this item (as it is definitely able to pull off way higher).

Putting the range at 230-275

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

[EDIT]

P.S. I also found this after I made the suggestion:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25467288

BP after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043966539?time=1427266800

Total value around ~245 (after overpay ~220)

Trade happened in ~3 days and close enough to the suggested range