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Orbiting planets can't melt steel toes! But they can decrease their price drastically.
Sale 1
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084056439?time=1430204400 sold for 7 keys http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084056439?time=1430290800
Sale 2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092242529?time=1428044400 sold for 8 keys http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198092242529?time=1428130800
Sale 3
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109508282?time=1427526000 sold for 8 keys http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198109508282?time=1427612400
If you want a laugh (OBVIOUS outlier)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158197118?time=1427612400 sold for Miami Ol' Snaggletooth (27 keys) http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158197118?time=1427785200
I'm not doing a mini for this because it's just really funny and isn't actually evidence that I'm using (hopefully that was self-evident).
That's all the recent ones I could find... if I missed anything, please let me know.
Whilst the Snaggletooth is most likely an outlier, its still best to do a mini, in case the value is drastically different.
7 Keys looks ridiculously low.
Sold with an After Eight Doublecross Comm(~2) for an Aces High Slick Cut
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158197118?time=1427850249 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198158197118?time=1428303600
Do a mini for both the slick and snaggle or I'll have to take over.
==Minis==
Aces High Slick Cut
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150238606?time=1428130800 sold for a Steaming Big Elfin Deal (10 keys) and a Strange Splendid Screen (~1 key) http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150238606?time=1428217200
Taking overpay into account, the Aces High Slick Cut should be worth about 10 keys.
Miami Ol' Snaggletooth
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140580949?time=1430118000 traded for a Kill-a-Watt Modest Metal Pile of Scrap (25 keys) http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140580949?time=1430550000
Due to overpay, Miami Ol' Snaggletooth should be worth approximately 23 keys.
Sale 1, sold in a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25831947
Sale 2, sold in a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25569597
Sale 3 looks to have taken a few days but considering sale sold in a day for 8 its easy to call this an outlier as well
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25443678
http://backpack.tf/item/3424413752
Sale 4, you missed a number of sweets on the Toe, notably a white Essential Accessories and a strange professional Big Earner.
In all of these cases there are other recent sales you could look into instead.
You know what an outlier is but you don't know what a quicksale is?
This is not even a hat actually...
I would probably go with a more conservative range here of ~8-11
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25642422 - think this sold for close to its b/o. He add some sweets for a ~15 key hat?
Polar how is my keiv suggestion!