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Updated with one more proof
So I figured i can give it a try. No harm can come from it.... I hope =)
Sold for 202 keys: http://backpack.tf/item/3737504985
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097422673?time=1430550000
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021691101?time=1430463600
Sold for Green Energy Brown Bomber: http://backpack.tf/item/701113162
Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995194055?time=1428476400
Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088401243?time=1428476400
Brown Bomber = 225
225*0.9~202
Maybe invalid due the fact the buyer is banned for sharking in outpost. If anyone knows if it's valid or not please write the source to his knowledge, cause i cant find anywhere in the rules about that.
funny enough, the current owner already has an offer of 250~
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25866590
"DaD Tyrants+2 Max's Heads+Pro Aussie Black Box+5 Buds+10 Keys"
I have seen that user posting on many trades and no one took the offer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25703078 - DaD Tyrants+3 Max's Head+30 Keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25703787 - DaD Tyrants+PE Tossle (Tossle is unupdated but still...)
I can do more
your brown bomber trade included a (banned) sharker ,so that trade might be unusable
anyways,you just explained how that offer was serious,and it indicates a value of over 202
If it's a good offer that was offered to all isn't it shows the buyer really wants it and it is an outlier?
And if the offer is really good why they didn't take it?
I'm just trying to understand the case here I appreciate your criticism =)
because they want more kek. however that last offer is valued at 250~
that's a fact
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25703078 - DaD Tyrants+3 Max's Head+30 Keys
This is the user that sold for 202 keys in case you didn't notice and he declined a worth more than 230 ~ (150+75)*0.9 + 30
He might have wanted pure fast but then again he had 4 days between the offer and the buying offer
and "DaD Tyrants+2 Max's Heads+Pro Aussie Black Box+5 Buds+10 Keys" = (150+50+28+23)*0.9 + 10 ~ 236
Just so we will be on the same calculation
you are contradicting yourself. that's more of a reason to possibly make a conservative bump up
i'd wait tho,the guy could accept the offer after all
Im showing the user wants the hat therefore offering alot on it(Outlier) but maybe people just dont see that hat worth as much as backpack.tf maybe the DaD Tyrants needs a drop
hardly. it has been updated 18 days ago. so it's pretty fresh
Oh hey, it's my offer xD
I'm fairly sure it's been declined since they don't want to deal with DaD since I've been told many times that they don't like the effect ;-;
i'd take it
He's banned on op not on SteamRep therefore 2nd sale is aigth
as far as i remember,steamrep doesn't handle shark reports
wanted to share the outpost trades:
1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25703078
2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25577060
I'm crazy. My purchase may or may not be an outlier but eh
Bought mine for: (No minis done for killstreaks :c)
Death at Dusk Tyrant's Helm - 160 Keys
Pro Aussie Scattergun - ~42 Keys
Pro Aussie Black Box - ~27 Keys
KS Aussie Blutsauger - 10 Keys
Strange Kritzkrieg - 17 Keys
BMOC - 4 Keys
+ 30 Keys Pure
(160+42+27+10+17+4)x0.9+30 = x
234+30 = 264 Keys approximately (have to get proper values)
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http://imgur.com/a/j69ll - https://steamcommunity.com/tradeoffer/460195649/confirm?accountid=157331688&tradeofferid=460195649&confirmation_code=8854690938582546761&mid=cQ4JkkN2Wo69w2FzbjI7TuEl-1Aq3S0vAiZqwUSI9kQO5lnBJHnz7zocXvlJ_fQc (lel I think this works)
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Yeah... I'd assume this is an outlier but it'd be great if it wasn't xD
I also just declined a trade offer for my Sunbeams Rack which I did not list anywhere for sale:
http://imgur.com/a/l38c0 - Declined offer of Darkblaze Tyrant's Helm (192*0.9) + Gifted Australium Grenade Launcher (~17) + Strange Professional Festive Wrench (~21*0.9) = 172.8 + 17 + 18.9 = 208.7
This is just a quick and rough estimate but along with the above sale, it shows just how much potential this hat has selling for more than your suggested range.
ok seems like im going to close it, but i have no doubt this thing will go down.
all the offers so far are with unusual that are very hard to sell which is why i think people refuses them.
plus, not everyone is valuing the overpay as 0.9 so i think that's a factor too.