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"Brains.. haircuts.. hippies.. BRAAAIIINS!"
Operation Kick the Bucket has been initiated! [updating the brain buckets]
3 in existence, and a clean one has finally had some sales!
http://backpack.tf/item/1201971473 clean one
http://backpack.tf/item/1242839608 duped one
The sales:
[clean sales]
Sale 1:
Sold for 50 keys pure:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25324078
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1426921200 befor
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1427017929 after
States it was quicksold, but the trade has been up for 2 weeks
-> 50 keys
Sale 2:
Sold + PE gilded (~98) + horace (8) + 26 keys for a duped GE stash (~150)
buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1425765470 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1425801600 after
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022933439?time=1425542400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198022933439?time=1425830186 after
150 - 98 - 8 - 26 = ~18
This doesnt even take overpay into account; I cant use this sale.
[duped sales]
Sale 3:
Sold for burning gonzila (40) + smoking drill hat (18)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052803733?time=1430463600 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198052803733?time=1430574600 after
Mini gonzila based on pure, no overpay needed.
0.9*18 + 40 = ~56
-> 56 keys
Sale 4:
Sold for moon panama (58) + lantern stovepipe (~30) + genuine robosandvich (13) + some refs and cosmetics (~2)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170105522?time=1429644788 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198170105522?time=1429772400 after
0.9*(58+30+13+2) = ~92
-> 92 keys OUTLIER
Sale 5:
Sold for duped poisoned shadows hamburg (70) + 5 keys + ks awper (0.2) + spec ks carb botkiller scatter (~2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25756489
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085909902?time=1429513200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085909902?time=1429641919 after
0.9*(70+2) + 5 = ~70
-> 70 keys
Sale 6:
Sold for DP front runner (55)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25748861
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025281605?time=1429426800 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025281605?time=1429566104 after
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25745574 FR had a B/O of 55
FR is outdated and might be less now. It will either be in the range, or a low outlier.
-> 55 keys
Sale 7:
[no trade post]
Sold for stormy headsplitter (90) + Gfetti hotrod (19) + strange dark age defender (~0.7)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173411854?time=1429340400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198173411854?time=1429494998 after
0.9*(90+19+0.7) = ~100
-> 100 keys OUTLIER
Sale 8:
Sold for gifted (signed?) GE fedora + 2 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067172786?time=1429069537 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067172786?time=1429081200 after
Gifted/signed hat is also duped, minis would involve more outdated hats
Gonna exclude this.
The minis
Mini duped stash:
sold for AF rack (~150)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058126995?time=1428822000 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058126995?time=1428915144 after
Taking 150
Mini gonzila:
Sold for 4 buds pure (40)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978915028?time=1426575600 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197978915028?time=1426676769 after
Taking 40
Mini drill:
Sold with genuine shred (1.7) + strange ks rocketlauncher (0.3) + ks kit for pfetti whoopee (20)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123779583?time=1430463600 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123779583?time=1430557824 after
20-2 is 18
Taking 18
mini panama:
Sold for duped stormy tower (~35) + misty billycock (38) + cauldron hotrod (36) + bubbling gonzila (12)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069140011?time=1430118000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069140011?time=1430239349
This is well above the current clean price, capping at clean value of 58
Taking 58
Mini hamburg:
Sold for phosphorus tree (70)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085909902?time=1430377200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085909902?time=1430479435 after
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25842546 phos tree had a B/O of 70
Taking 70
Mini headsplitter:
Sold for DP view (90)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061890230?time=1428130800 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061890230?time=1428267599 after
Taking 90
Mini hotrod:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55244ea3ba8d8858538b47dd
Comment section shows sales at ~18-20, averaging to 19
Taking 19
Sales at:
50
55
56
70
92
100
Outliers and why
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/246326583 a clean one is currently for sale at 70. Despite having two duped sales at ~90-100, Several sales between 50 and 70 and an unsold at 70 indicate 90-100 are high outliers
Price based on duped sales
Previous voting has been done based on duped hats (because no clean one has been on the market). A clean one has popped up on the market, but since there are several sales on the duped one that are higher than the only usable clean sale, Im including them in the range. Im lowering based on a clean one, but adjusting the high end, since a duped one shows it can sell for more.
Final range: 50-70 keys
Constructive criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3
Sale 1: The histories are a bit weird.
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1426575600 (March 17th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063472871?time=1427007600 (March 22nd)
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033775004?time=1426662000 (March 18th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033775004?time=1427007600 (March 22nd)
50 keys
Sale 2: This sale should be used to price the Stash. It's never a good idea to use a highly priced item to price a lowly priced item, especially when it's a bulk sale like that.
Sale 3: 6 keys and ~1 key worth of item were added to the Bucket by the seller.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048770245?time=1430550000 (May 2nd)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048770245?time=1430636400 (May 3rd)
40 keys for a Burning Flames German Gonzila also seems low. There are sellers at 55 keys; I would probably use those as mini instead.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25939004
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25659582
(55 + 18) * .9 - 6 - 1 = 58.7 keys
~60 keys
Result ended up being close.
Sale 5: I've made a suggestion for Phosphorous A Rather Festive Tree.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5555e2d2b98d88e8438b4569
Should be pretty close to 70 keys
Sale 6: DP Front Runner should be much lower. Definitely an outlier.
Sale 8: GE Fedora is probably 60-70 keys.
With the clean one unsold at 70 keys, this is looking pretty strong.
Thanks for the clarifications and for updating the phos tree ^^
If someone wanted to counter with 55-70 to call a low end sale an outlier to match a high end sale outlier, I would be okay with it.