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Kinda first unusual suggestion, go easy on me and please tell me what I could improve.
Also, 10 months old price.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25815541 - Sold for Circling Hearts Western Wear - http://i.imgur.com/uHkTw8r.png?1
http://backpack.tf/item/448710996 - WW
http://backpack.tf/item/3665033865 - Glove
Mini = 32 *0.9 = 28.8, rounding to 29
Sale 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25557770 - Sold for a Black Max Head (26~27 at the time of the sale) - 26 Keys after overpay (I asked a mod if I should apply overpay, he said not 10% and that 26 would do)
http://backpack.tf/item/1131713763
http://backpack.tf/item/2154298531
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25382789 - Sold for a Nuts and Bolts Brown Bomber + 1 Key - http://i.imgur.com/LtNYhQA.png?1
18+21=39/2=19.5*0.9=17.5 + 1 = 18.5 - rounding to 19
http://backpack.tf/item/2154298531 Glove
http://backpack.tf/item/889534104 Bomber
http://backpack.tf/item/3558860489 Key
* The Collector's Postal Pummeler was not part of the trade: http://backpack.tf/item/3501813584 (First seen on inventory at 06 Feb, probably only was altered (Added Killstreak or something))
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Mini for Heart WW
(No trade)
http://i.imgur.com/7H8pPTi.png?1 Sold for 32 Keys
http://backpack.tf/item/3597592376
I checked the history of the keys, and they match.
Thanks for reading, I am expecting feedback.
Personally, based only on the sales you've provided, I would count Sale #3 as an outlier and suggest at 26-29. It was up for a whole week, but it's low relative to the rest of your data.
On the other hand, 27.5 is a bit higher than I would have expected this to be. It's possible that there are more sales out there that would validate the lower end of your range. Finding some could help this suggestion as well.