"WHY IS THERE NO BLUE CONFETTI?! I wanna celebrate my blue belt"

This is a hat though. 3 in existence, 1 has recent sales.

http://backpack.tf/item/1656192097 Sales

http://backpack.tf/item/1659345304 "Sales"

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for burning hazmatten (390) + phantasmjr hamburg (~67) + beams capotain (~32) + blizzy toy soldier (~17) + vintage fanowar (22) + strange/killstreak sweets (~25)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543?time=1429551750 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070474543?time=1429686000 after

Overpay on hazmatten has been done in the mini

0.9*(67+32+25+22+17) + 390 = ~540

-> 540 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for duped vintage max (180) + duped GBH TC (220)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050824312?time=1429513200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050824312?time=1429766363 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058895724?time=1429513200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058895724?time=1429713141 after

Trade posts/histories:

KE: http://backpack.tf/item/1656192097 || http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25765848

Max: http://backpack.tf/item/265125322 || http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25727752

Tc: http://backpack.tf/item/1674870811 || http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25741946

0.9*(220) + 180 = ~370

-> 370 keys Outlier

Sale 3:

Sold for scorching thrist (100) + misty killers kabuto (160) + duped harvest brainiac (315)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25205265

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1425108856 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198112281935?time=1425110400 after

Histories:

KE: http://backpack.tf/item/1656192097

Thirst: http://backpack.tf/item/3034261685

Kabuto: http://backpack.tf/item/1216472639

Brain: http://backpack.tf/item/1199007633

overpay on brainiac has been done in the mini

0.9*(100+160)+315 = ~550

-> 550 keys

The minis:

Mini max:

duped max histories are a damn mess to work with. There's one for sale at 400

Taking 400

Mini for duped vintage max's:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25587157 sold for 180

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24946568 BO was 180

Credit to Leo and Woifi c:

Mini duped tc:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/551ff403b88d882c358b4905

Suggestion indicates that duped/clean GBH tc's have about the same selling potential. Going with its clean value.

Taking 220

Mini toy soldier:

outdated ~20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25324533 unsold at 17 for a month

Taking 17

Mini hazmatten:

Sold for lantern TC (190) + HOUWAR (150) + 8buds pure (80)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027603870?time=1426476648 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198027603870?time=1426489200 after

0.9*(190+150)+80 = ~390 after overpay

Taking 390

Mini duped brainiac:

Sold for duped GE veil (180) + PE yellow belt (97) + steaming tyrolean (20) + 30 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070332237?time=1423036800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070332237?time=1423278953 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25135551

The duped veil sold for beams bonk with a B/O of 15 buds (180), capping at that

0.9*(97+20) + 180+30 = ~315 after overpay

Taking 315

Other history changes:

Other history changes I found:

http://backpack.tf/item/1656192097

gravity => african:

whole backpack moved; probably alts

http://backpack.tf/item/1659345304

danny => ant:

Empty BPs afterwards, coinciding with an OP ban: http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198104899878

Ant => rick james:

Same as above:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198025499843

Final range:

3 sales. 1 at ~550, 1 at 540. and a very fast sale that ends up being ~370 (thanks to woifi for pointing that out)

Considering 370 an outlier, going for 540-550.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3