"A boring filler episode inbetween the spectacular kickthebuckets.."

Resuggesting thanks to Aaroncsn. It took a while, forgot I was gonna redo this one

Need a mini on this for the DB impaler; might as well try to price this

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for MN steel toe (10) + searing HWNN (29)+ BMOC (4) + 7 keys pure + sweets (0.5)

http://imgur.com/AkabOfd

http://imgur.com/3peNw3M

http://imgur.com/c5mjKeV

http://imgur.com/m0uksjA

0.9*10 + 29+4+7 = ~49

-> 49 keys

Sale 2:

sold for 2 buds?

Buyer:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062815905?time=1428735600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062815905?time=1428885255 after

Seller:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1428735600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1428843024 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25639195 The trade

This value makes no sense (as it would be ~10). Gonna assume either something I cant see was involved. Otherwise, considering it an outlier

Sale 3:

Sold + GBH connoisseurs (~70) + Hellfire Cloud crasher (50) for DB impaler

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1428390000 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107740754?time=1428503885 after

Using this for the impaler

Sale 4:

Sold for aces mountaincap (~12) + presidents yellow belt (~21)+ 1 key

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086357276?time=1428185099 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086357276?time=1428217200 after

0.9*(12+21) + 1 = ~30,7, rounding to 31

31 keys

Sale 5:

sold for duped ghosts pith (28) + duped vivid private eye (~26)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108511797?time=1426782446 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108511797?time=1426575600 after

0.9*(28+26) = ~48

-> 48 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for a bud (~8) + 16 keys + 2 keys in ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058401421?time=1427439600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058401421?time=1427698800 after

8+16+2 = 23

-> 26 keys

Sale 7:

Sold with stormy backbiters (~12) + 2 keys for GBH hermes

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071200743?time=1426057200 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071200743?time=1426288452 after

Cant get accurate mini on the hermes, will use this to update it.

Sale 8:

Sold + orbfire nappers (12) + 2 keys for KaW BoA (68)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088969319?time=1425256941 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088969319?time=1425283200 after

0.9* (68-12) -2 = ~48

-> 48 keys

Sale 9 [Credits to Aaroncsn, see prev. suggestion]:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25837949 Offered on for Miami Nights Hat of Cards(34.5 keys) + Strange Professional KIllstreak Festive Ambassador(~11 keys) + Strange Professional killstreak festive knife(~22 keys). Making this sale ~68 keys

-> 68 keys

Sale 10 [Credits to Aaroncsn, see prev. suggestion]:

Sold for duped Demonflame Lord Cockswain's Pith Helmet (55) + Sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059793248?time=1430118000 (April 27th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059793248?time=1430290800 (April 29th)

0.9*55 = ~50

-> 50 keys

The minis:

Mini HWNN:

Buyer resold it for a max (26) afterwards

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062815905?time=1428885255 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062815905?time=1428908400 after

Also sold for pro ks aussie BB after that:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076568020?time=1428964725 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076568020?time=1429167600 after

http://imgur.com/csJ59kJ averagely sells ~72€ => ~32 keys

averaging 26-32 to 29

Both are pure/pure equivalents, no overpay needed

Mini cone:

Sold for presidents attendant (~17)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108990321?time=1425407214 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198108990321?time=1425456000 after

Taking 17

Mini yellow belt:

Outdated at ~30.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25806799 seller at 21

Taking 21

Mini aces medicap:

sold for bubbling scotch (~11)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058875299?time=1425715200 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058875299?time=1425825792 after

Sold for stormy fez (~12):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026225027?time=1430011404 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198026225027?time=1430031600 after

12 sale happened without a bump in two days (and exceeds the other sale at 11)

Taking 12

Mini pith:

Sold for mallard capo (~47)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067540052?time=1426699598 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067540052?time=1426834800 after

Clean one for sale at 28:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25779723

The sale shows that the duped has a selling potential at (or even above) a clean one; taking clean value

Taking 28

Mini demonflame pith:

Sold for c9 warm up (40) + blizzy crocleather (15)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094183571?time=1430031600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094183571?time=1429772400 after

Taking 55

Mini nappers:

sold for stormy backbiter (12)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071200743?time=1425797170 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071200743?time=1425884400 after

Taking 12

Sales at:

Outliers and why

10 is still a low outlier.

Given recent added trades, 31 also seems like an outlier. 68 seems overstating. Going with 42-50

Got rid of the huge range.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3