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"I guess Im some kind of LUNAtic"
I was gonna wait a day, but 22 hours seems like enough time to ctrl+c/ctrl+v to me . Basicly gave the other suggester a (nearly) complete counter, but it hasn't been taken. Did some more research on my way to the countermobile.
The sales:
Sale 1:
Sold for 40 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25564398
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054266533?time=1428390000 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054266533?time=1428489764 after
-> 40 keys
Sale 2:
Sold for peace sign party phantom (30) + sweets ~1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25719710
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097640992?time=1429772400 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097640992?time=1429946439 after
0.9*30+1 = ~28
-> 28 keys
Sale 3:
Sold + max (26) for ghosts hustlers (53)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25801219
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002?time=1429858800 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002?time=1430050762 after
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054814054?time=1429945200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054814054?time=1430046148 after
53 - 26 = ~ 27
-> 27 keys
Sale 4:
Sold + 5keys for amaranthine geezer (25)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25716477
Seller:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055932634?time=1429226295 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055932634?time=1429254000 after
Buyer:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063653357?time=1427871600 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063653357?time=1429297455 after
Gonna assume it was offered since the seller added 5 keys
25-5 = 20
-> 20 keys OUTLIER
Sale 5:
Sold for pro ks aussie medgun (40)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25573394
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060488196?time=1428730056 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060488196?time=1428735600 after
Mini in pure, no overpay
-> 40 keys
Sale 6:
Sold for mallard western (~22)
http://backpack.tf/item/3611817948 for http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673
0.9*22 = ~20 keys
-> 20 keys OUTLIER
Sale 7:
Sold + 5keys worth of sweets for mallard noble (~43)
http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673 for http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673 + http://backpack.tf/item/3140751918 + http://backpack.tf/item/3065700548
Was used to price the noble; not using
Sale 8:
Sold for vivid rack (80)
http://imgur.com/1FV1Xpa,paDxv7D#0
Histories:
Buck: http://backpack.tf/item/1229094943
Rack: http://backpack.tf/item/237433937
Offered, no overpay
-> 80 keys OUTLIER
The minis:
Mini aussie med:
http://imgur.com/s2fwm5D
Recent sales at:
~80
~90
~90
~100
Averaging to ~90€ => ~40 keys
Taking 40
Sales at:
20
20
27
28
40
40
80
Oultiers and why
given all these recent sales, 80 is clearly an outlier.
Cutting off the 20s from the range given the speed at which it still pulls off between 30 and 40. Rounding the range (28-40) to 30-40.
Additional:
Has been priced ~1month ago, but all sales from that suggestion have expired, thus I dont have to take them into consideration.
Constructice criticism welcome!
~Foamy :3
Poor Fyre...this is why having premium helps with unusual trading, can check previous sales and B/Os so you dont accidentally take a bad deal.
Yeah, its why Im always hesistant to take hats I cant get a proper view on. Although I must say, the buckaroos was rather transparent (updated 1 month ago, far lower than the rack). The one that offered the hat probably got him to believe he had good/tentative offers on it :/