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~300 keys
moon
Unusual Buckaroo's Hat Cloudy Moon
114 votes up
9 votes down
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Comments

"I guess Im some kind of LUNAtic"


I was gonna wait a day, but 22 hours seems like enough time to ctrl+c/ctrl+v to me . Basicly gave the other suggester a (nearly) complete counter, but it hasn't been taken. Did some more research on my way to the countermobile.


The sales:


Sale 1:


Sold for 40 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25564398

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054266533?time=1428390000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054266533?time=1428489764 after


-> 40 keys


Sale 2:


Sold for peace sign party phantom (30) + sweets ~1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25719710

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097640992?time=1429772400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097640992?time=1429946439 after


0.9*30+1 = ~28


-> 28 keys


Sale 3:


Sold + max (26) for ghosts hustlers (53)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25801219

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002?time=1429858800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996095002?time=1430050762 after


Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054814054?time=1429945200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054814054?time=1430046148 after

53 - 26 = ~ 27


-> 27 keys


Sale 4:


Sold + 5keys for amaranthine geezer (25)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25716477


Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055932634?time=1429226295 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055932634?time=1429254000 after


Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063653357?time=1427871600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063653357?time=1429297455 after

Gonna assume it was offered since the seller added 5 keys

25-5 = 20


-> 20 keys OUTLIER


Sale 5:


Sold for pro ks aussie medgun (40)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25573394

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060488196?time=1428730056 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060488196?time=1428735600 after

Mini in pure, no overpay


-> 40 keys


Sale 6:


Sold for mallard western (~22)

http://backpack.tf/item/3611817948 for http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673

0.9*22 = ~20 keys


-> 20 keys OUTLIER


Sale 7:


Sold + 5keys worth of sweets for mallard noble (~43)

http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673 for http://backpack.tf/item/1247409673 + http://backpack.tf/item/3140751918 + http://backpack.tf/item/3065700548

Was used to price the noble; not using


Sale 8:


Sold for vivid rack (80)

http://imgur.com/1FV1Xpa,paDxv7D#0

Histories:

Buck: http://backpack.tf/item/1229094943

Rack: http://backpack.tf/item/237433937

Offered, no overpay


-> 80 keys OUTLIER


The minis:


Mini aussie med:

http://imgur.com/s2fwm5D

Recent sales at:

~80

~90

~90

~100

Averaging to ~90€ => ~40 keys

Taking 40


Sales at:

20

20

27

28

40

40

80


Oultiers and why

given all these recent sales, 80 is clearly an outlier.

Cutting off the 20s from the range given the speed at which it still pulls off between 30 and 40. Rounding the range (28-40) to 30-40.


Additional:

Has been priced ~1month ago, but all sales from that suggestion have expired, thus I dont have to take them into consideration.


Constructice criticism welcome!


~Foamy :3

    Poor Fyre...this is why having premium helps with unusual trading, can check previous sales and B/Os so you dont accidentally take a bad deal.

      Yeah, its why Im always hesistant to take hats I cant get a proper view on. Although I must say, the buckaroos was rather transparent (updated 1 month ago, far lower than the rack). The one that offered the hat probably got him to believe he had good/tentative offers on it :/