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when I spent an hour on this suggestion and I accidentally refreshed the page... oh well.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25929967 | B/O at 45 [Has had for a couple days]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25926728 | B/O at 45 [young]
Sale 1
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060664995?time=1428279015 | Before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060664995?time=1428562800 | After
Sold with 8 keys for a Sunbeams Fruit Shoot
69 - 8 = 61
0.9 x 61 = 55 keys
I have B/Os at 45 and sales at 55.
Yes, the B/Os are somewhat young, but the fact that there are 2 of them at 45 makes me want to include in the range, giving us a nice range of 45 to 55.
Other sale is too complex to use
Your first B/O is on a duped copy, so this will probably come down to waiting on that second unsold. He seems to have a very interested potential buyer... 44 key offer declined in ~24 hours.
At this point, if it sells, it wont be a quicksell anymore, so it doesn't matter. 45 should still be in the range, unless it sells for more.
I sort of agree... but the speed with which he received the 44 key offer gives me pause regardless. It's practically the same as offering his B/O, which would have made that a quicksell, but it's just so stingy though... I've never seen anyone do that.
At any rate, it was declined, and they didn't re-offer, so I guess that's that. The average price still comes out above that B/O at least, so if it does indeed sell easily at 45, well, it's being priced at 50, so that should be fine.
another one was sold for a vivid plasma samur eye both clean http://imgur.com/MTulcBb
http://backpack.tf/item/496365773
http://backpack.tf/item/1450365303 ~54 keys
Supports the range.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5548efa5ba8d88ec4c8b46a5 - There's a valid mini for the Samur-Eye here. Since that sale was your previous B/O at 45, and it took 9 days to sell, it should confirm that your low-end is valid.
Sunbeams Fruit Shoot was updated a couple days ago, which fiddles with your high-end though. Can't find any other issues here besides that.
Fruitshoot was valid at time of sale, dont think it matters
The old price was based on a single sale from the end of January. Every single data point from the current price falls closer to the sale you're using to price the Batter's.
If anything, it doesn't matter because the difference between the two prices is minor. But using the newer price absolutely makes more sense.