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Sale 1:
Sold for a Cloud 9 Hetman's Headpiece and 2 keys of sweets
(16 + 2) = 18 keys
No outpost trade
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064469074?time=1424851200 (February 25th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064469074?time=1425024000 (February 27th)
Sale 2:
Sold with 10 keys for a Disco Beat Down Cotton Head
(30 - 10) = 20 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25835888
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012570723?time=1431068400 (May 8th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012570723?time=1431154800 (May 9th)
Sale 3: (outlier, quicksell)
Sold for X
Math
{outpost trade link}
Notes:
Mini for the Disco Beat Down Cotton Head:
Sold with 4 keys of sweets for a Vivid Plasma Grimm Hatte
(37.5*0.9) - 4 = 29.75 rounding to 30 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039013767?time=1429772400 (April 23rd)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198039013767?time=1429858800 (April 24th)
Mini for the Cloud 9 Hetman's Headpiece:
Sold for a Bubbling Private Eye
(18*0.9) = 16.2 rounding to 16 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100888789?time=1427266800 (March 25th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100888789?time=1427698800 (March 30th)
Conclusion:
Sales at 18 and 20,taking the final range at 18 to 20 keys.