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As long as nothing supernatural happens, this should be easy.
Appears to have 1:1ed for the Belgian: http://gyazo.com/dd3550054779ef9bca7caca2fbad689a http://backpack.tf/item/3538378015 http://backpack.tf/item/3329693590
Mini on belgian: http://gyazo.com/f94b566201c1d983b4e1b0d0b8c061a1
Mini on tyrant: http://gyazo.com/9599b0e995c391a8609b399a48afdb68 Fair enough assumption is that the tyrant 1:1ed with the max. 26*0.9=23
Because the Pro Vintage Luger sells for $20 on the market: http://gyazo.com/be267358120ea8076b8a6d64f6d06a88 20*0.85(tax)=17/2.50= 7. 7+23=30.
If I did anything wrong let me know.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25808097 - Keys were added with the Belgian. I actually believe it was more than three.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101047830?time=1430290800 - Look at the items recently purchased by Alpha Starfish (also visible are 3 keys which came from Radors).
http://backpack.tf/item/3482585177 - S. Pyromancer's Hood, Kitteh -> Alpha Starfish
http://backpack.tf/item/580825189 - S. Degreaser, Admiral Aodhan -> Alpha Starfish
http://backpack.tf/item/3673001613 - Key, Radors -> Kitteh
http://backpack.tf/item/3681592145 - Key, Radors -> Admiral Aodhan
Alpha Starfish spent multiple keys from their trade with Radors before their backpack was scanned again. I haven't tracked down exactly how many, but your Gyazo screencap shows a maximum of 9 keys and 10 refined.
I'm also having trouble verifying the rest of your suggestion, because all I have to go on are the screencaps. Links to Outpost or bp.tf would help a lot.