"Brainiarcana"

I cant believe I did the ref thing..

[thanks Trafalgar Law [⇄] and Inbrutality]

Resuggestion the resuggestion, as Ive updated the mallard pullover today. The mallard's suggestion is theoretically still valid, but all its sales have expired. Updating it is probably more accurate.

[previous]

Resuggesting, missed an item

Credits to Pelayo alerting me and for the screenshot, credits to Shuffle Spy for pricing the Asiimov c:

I forgot why I needed to update this, but I did.

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold with venenata hodrod (77) + vivid party phantom (37) + pro ks pistol (5) + S.f pro ks sniper (23)+ strange shotgun for Cmoon samureye + genuine black menpo (1) + C. pro ks zatoichi + strange bushidou (3) + C. concheror (3) + strange chargin' targe

Buyer:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25705333

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123907426?time=1431064056 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123907426?time=1431068400 after

Seller:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25856114

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1430982000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1431100531 after

Histories:

Brain: http://backpack.tf/item/2037165653

Samur: http://backpack.tf/item/1222635761

hotrod: http://backpack.tf/item/2036261117

phantom: http://backpack.tf/item/220321445

Probably better to use this to update the moon samur

Sale 2:

Sold, again, with the CV hotrod (77) + sweets (~1) for MG muffs (~215) DaD soldered sensei (59) + PE brim (55) + pro ks aussie sniper (48) + sweets (4) + AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) (~21)

Buyer:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25842338

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1430463600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1430550000 after

Seller:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25852218

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1430525393 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1430550000 after

Histories:

Brain: http://backpack.tf/item/2037165653

Hotrod: http://backpack.tf/item/2036261117

Muffs: http://backpack.tf/item/3300794337

Sensei: http://backpack.tf/item/3269005090

Brim: http://backpack.tf/item/2293051891

Sniper: http://backpack.tf/item/2366462426

http://imgur.com/WGGT8eP [credits to Pelayo]

0.9* (215+59+55+4 -77-1) + 48 + 21 = ~300

-> 300 keys

Sale 3:

Sold + GE pencil (140) for mallard pullover (250) + secret attendant (150)

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1429167600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1429368028 after

Seller:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25077308

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023126936?time=1428877294 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023126936?time=1429340400 after

Histories:

Brain: http://backpack.tf/item/2037165653

Pencil: http://backpack.tf/item/1079582142

Pullover: http://backpack.tf/item/3276866570

attendant: http://backpack.tf/item/1208638739

250+150-140 = ~260

-> 260 keys

The minis:

Mini pullover:

Updated this (250)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55540936b98d88b12b8b459f

Based on one sale, overpay has been taken into account already

Taking 250 after overpay

Mini MG muffs:

I made a suggestion for them a while back:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55401cf3ba8d8814128b4567

200-225, avging to 215

Taking 215

Mini hotrod:

Sold for GE pencil (140) saw this coming when I saw the histories + DaD greased lightning (53)+ 10 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1429858800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036938535?time=1430074487 after

140 - 53 - 10 = ~77

Taking 77

Mini pencil:

Sold for scorching billy (75)+ eerie mullet (22) + 45keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25833155

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058483660?time=1430935294

Scorching billy was duped, had a BO of 75

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25833155

75+0.9*22+45 = ~140 after overpay

Taking 140

Mini attendant:

Sold for PE modest (~165):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25664989

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998104346?time=1428649200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197998104346?time=1428755527 after

0.9*165 = ~150

Taking 150 after overpay

SCM minis:

http://imgur.com/96tq1Dz

pro ks aussie sniper (top): averagely sells between 90-120€ = ~48 keys

S.f pro ks sniper: averagely sells 40-60€ = ~23 keys

Mini Asiimov:

http://csgo.steamanalyst.com/id/2193/AWP-Asiimov-Well-Worn

Credits to shuffle spy for this [I know nothing of CSGO stuff :D]

valued ~48$ = ~21 keys

Taking 21

Final value:

Two sales, one at ~280, one at ~300. going for 280-300

Pricing with complex sales

All of these sales involve multiple hats. However, there's not many other sales I can use.

- Sale 1 is more likely suitable to update the samureye instead (since its a year outdated)

- Sale 2 can be considered a complex sale, however; the arcana brainiac was the main part of the deal on the sellers side (~280/350)

- Sale 3 was a 2:2. The other hat on the sellers side was about equal in value as one of the hats from the buyer. Given the available sales, this should be usable.

Disclaimer:

I have no intentions whatsoever to make a personal gain out of suggesting prices. Im pricing hats to give the community insight in the market value of hats on the market. If you have a problem with my suggestion, or think I left anything important out, post it ON HERE. I very much do NOT appreciate hindsight friend requests from people that want to flame me for 'undervaluing' their hats. I can change mistakes I made, but if you want to alert me, "This robo heavy hat is god tier and should be worth 140" and "It sold for this 5 months ago" are no valid arguments. If you paid too much for your hat: sucks to be you, just dont take it out on me.

Thanks.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy