Suggestion: Circling Heart Napper's Respite at 50–60 keys

I already included the 60 keys sale and it as an outlier. There is a seller at 49 keys (you) and another seller at 50 keys (which has not been sold for 1 month). 5 days is not that young and is valid. The sale in 5 days is also valid.

The next two sales for this hat will very likely be 50 keys or less, therefore there is no reason for this to be higher than 50 keys. 42 - 50 keys is perfectly fine as an estimation.

no need to be lower than 50 tbh, 5 days trade are considered young stated here : http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/ general guidelines are : <25 keys= 1 week or less, 25-50 keys= 2 weeks or less, 50-75 keys = 3 weeks or less, 75-100 keys = 4 weeks or less, this was said in a post somewhere in the forums

and according to the suggestion thread, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25516246 your sale is sold for 60 keys after 2 months according to your bp = valid sale.

The sale at 42 keys is valid. The sale at 60 keys is invalid because of sellers. Valid sale at 42 keys, unsold for 1 month at 50 keys with another seller at 49 keys, the range of 42-50 is perfectly fine.

Hmm? you strongly believe that a sale in 5 days for a 42 keys item is valid...when it is already stated that sale <2 weeks for 25-50 keys items are considered quicksales and not valid to drop a price,

yes unsold for 1 month is valid for low range, the sale at 60 was posted before the sales of 50/49, 49 in which case is mine(unsold for 6 days? not even a week yet). you sold your hat before the one selling for 50 is being posted. How does that makes your sale invalid?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25067199 (Yours listed for 55, eventually sold for 60 since you have another post up for 45 i supposed you asked around in a trade server or something w/o a B/O, so i am taking 60 as the official B/O)

Nowhere states that sales less than 2 weeks for 25-50 keys items are considered quicksells and not valid to drop a price. The official time for quicksells is 2 days. 5 days is fine for a low end.

What you are probably thinking about is the required amount of time passed on a trade in order to drop a hat's value based on buyout. If I'm wrong, please correct me by finding the source.

Why should this hat's price be 60 keys when I can get one right now for 50 (or 49) keys? It shouldn't be, and this is why the 60 keys sale is invalid even though it occurred before the other trades.

Me willing to take 45 keys or 55 keys further proves why 60 keys is invalid.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/33455-the-new-update-and-what-it-means-for-unusual-suggestions/

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/7-how-to-create-a-good-unusual-price-suggestion/

Yes the buyout rule, since you asked, if the hat sells within 2 weeks and within 25-50 keys, you really shouldn't use sales below the B/O that sells in less than a week for that range(5 days) as the lower range to price an unusual.

Especially when there's a sale at 60(you willing to take at 45 or 55 just proves that the range is there,and when you sold at 60, further showing that 42-50 isn't that accurate of a range)

+ common offers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25866669 (c/o stated in the post) , http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25675418 (dbd stalhelm: mini http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25507873 60 keys unsold 1 month). Even a 50 flat would be better actually.

The rule for dropping based on b/o alone is there to allow for quick fixes to inflated values. The time length isn't there to determine if a sale is a quicksale or not. It is to ensure that the b/o is not too young to be used as valid proof when dropping an unusual based on b/o alone.

What determines if a sale is a quicksale can be found here http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/

What is a quicksell?

Time is only one factor used to determine a quicksell. If a hat sells within 1-2 days for its b/o in pure, one should be suspicious. However, since time to sell varies greatly among the type of hats (old vs new effects, misc vs hats, high tier vs low tier), this is not a reliable way to identify a quicksell.

More important is how a sale relates to other sales. If a hat sells for less than commonly offered values in pure or unusuals or for less than common trade points, that is likely a quicksell.

If the hat can't be sold in a month for 50 keys, valuing the hat more than 50 keys wouldn't make any sense. This also implies that anything more than 50 keys is the solid outlier here. Not to mention that you are even selling at 40 keys now, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25937449. This is high.

yea thats why i am saying it should be 50 flat,or even 44-50 considering the offers on the nappers from all the trades. 42 for the low range sold in 5 days seems to be too fast imo

50 flat isn't realistic here either considering that it hasn't been successful for a month. This will definitely need a low end to form a range. Don't really know which offer you are referring to but be it 42 or 44 as the low end, the change in mean value with 50 keys as the high end is just 1 key. Not very significant is it?

It matters because the low end changes by 2-3 keys, people tend to follow low ends to buy quicksells/ sell discounted unusuals

I would resuggest at 44-50 if needed

2 sales at 50-60 range including the first one, 1 sale at 42, at least 10 offers between 44-48. If considering quicksales to be 3 days, there are more sales occuring at 50-60 range than at 42. If anything, 42 is an outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25675418 and its not because it doesn't sell at 50, it's because hes unwilling to take the 60 keys overpay, was asking for 65 in unusuals MINIMUM.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25675418 Let's take a look at the offers,

hearts gatsby (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25552563 10 buds when buds are around 4.5-5 : 4.8 rounded*0.9 = 43.2)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25816945 hearts gatsby by same guy agreed to add sweets

another trade, claims to have offers blah blah

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25866669 prancer's anti freeze price range wouldn't be that far off from hellfire, + 6 key sweets

mini prancer

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072853758?time=1431586800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072853758?time=1431673200 after

traded for defiant terrorwatt and miami cockswain

mini for defiant terrorwatt: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55469d3bb98d88de5b8b49ba outlier is 15, range falls within 22~24

mini for miami: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25690896 unsold at 20 1 month

42 seems to be a outlier given how many 44-50 offers are there

44-50 would be against the rules, you need a 5% change at least. :P So best would be to just let it go. ;)

Well, not when the evidences seem to say otherwise...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25675418 and its not because it doesn't sell at 50, it's because hes unwilling to take the 60 keys overpay, was asking for 65 in unusuals MINIMUM. Already showed that the evidence of the unsold B/O isn't entirely useable for the previous suggested range because he had an offer of overpay >50 keys just that he didn't like it

+ 2 other sales within 50-60 range

only a single sale at 42 with like 5 offers from 44-50, if anything that is the outlier

Which 60 keys overpay unusual are you talking about?

the dbd stalhelm. that one also has an inflated price, but unsold one is 60

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/555601f3b98d88d0108b4568

hmm k, even if thats the case, sale at 42 shouldn't be used when common offers are higher than that.

I see only bad offers that are not really higher than 42.

the hearts gatsby is debatable since he didn't specify how many sweets hes adding, given that another hearts gatsby has an offer of 10 buds 2 weeks ago when buds are 4.5-5,anti-freeze prancer price shouldn't be that far off from hellfire,offer of prancer+ 6 key sweets/blizzardy storm bicorne etc after overpay also fall within 44-50

None of those are too solid and probably less than 42 after overpay anyways. I'm going to close this now.