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Needs a drop.
New price: 36-39
[proof below]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25577322
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25929837
Sold for a Hearts Fez ~36 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25904935
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25940414
Sold for a SS Brown Bomber ~38 keys + sweets ~1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25856678
Quicksold for 20 not valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25742884
Sold with a AH Buccaneer for SFB Norman (no price)
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/531e025e4dd7b85a718b4568 :)
No overpay for first sale?
I'd thought this range would probably be more accurate since nobody is selling below 39 and the 4th sale (if it was valid) wouldn't be below 36 either I guess
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25972600 - This (no sellers below 39) was true when you commented of course, but there's a young seller at 36 now. Worth keeping an eye on. Still not really sure why you wouldn't apply overpay on Sale #1 regardless.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124998397?time=1431759600 - Also, sweets were added on the Slick Cut's side in Sale #2, not the Brown Bomber's.
32-36/37 makes more sense to me, based on the sales you've presented. And that's still higher than I would've expected.