"HEAVY IS HOT, AS HOT AS SUN. TELL HEAVY HE IS HOT"

Revising this suggestion. Apparently I missed CSGO keys that have been added. Credits to -_-(-(-(fAt BeAr)-)-)-_- for pointing this out and providing trade history screenshots!

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for gifted secret puligist (30) + gifted duped secret engi cap (55) + 10 phoenix case keys (~11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25860764

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044557428?time=1431306769 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044557428?time=1431327600 after

Screenshot: http://i.imgur.com/xPQXZB6.png?1

Mini cap is in pure, no overpay

55+0.9*30 + 11 = ~93

-> 93 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for a GE beak (~104)

- http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084401104?time=1431414000 Bought the hat from Digital taco, even though it never appears in his BP.

- http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198029074524?time=1431414000 received the GE beak that disappeared from the sellers BP

http://backpack.tf/item/270756056

Panda and cookies exchanged other unusuals around that time as well

Both before's and after's dont show the slick or the return

Other hats (max, bubbles grim) disappear from the buyers bp

Comments on the previous suggestion confirmed it was traded for the GE beak

0.9*104 = ~94

-> 94 keys

Sale 3:

Seems to have been exchanged for a demonflame brown bomber(mini at 125)

http://backpack.tf/item/2580147094 for http://backpack.tf/item/2054808109

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852?time=1431327600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033378852?time=1431493213 after

mini in pure, no overpay

-> 125 keys

sale 4:

Sold for peace sign razor cut (54) + BMOC (4)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24752988

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083215271?time=1431055202 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083215271?time=1431068400 after

0.9*54+4 = ~53

-> 53 keys OUTLIER

Mini puligst:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25861662 B/O 30

Sold as part of a deal for a moon kabuto

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095902384?time=1430982000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095902384?time=1431125812 after

Kabuto for duped NnB hazmat + searing glengarry + spec ks aussie flame + DaD wraith + this gifted hat

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25789227

Sold for pro ks collectors big earner (~10?)

Guessing the last one is too low of an outlier. Taking the 30.

Mini gifted engi cap:

Most recent actual sale I can get on it dates from jan:

Sold for 4buds (52) + 3 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044339816?time=1420099200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044339816?time=1420209894 after

Buds were 13 at the time, 13*4 +3 is ~55

Other:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25335365 vanished

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25335365 cant find out what happened here (damn bots he trades with)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198047870240 csgo stuff/cash?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198121132234 here we csgo again

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198069857209 no trade post, no clue what happened there

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069794994 the dupe is still here

Since I cant get any better recent sale, Im taking 55

Mini bomber:

- Sold for holy grail RPS

http://backpack.tf/item/2054808109 for http://backpack.tf/item/3703974837 (unpriced, no solid mini possible):

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55481afeb88d88d75a8b45e7

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5548222db88d88d15a8b4603

- Sold for 10 buds (120)+ 5 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102800965?time=1424592000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102800965?time=1424730573 after

120+5 = 125

Taking 125

Mini razor:

Sold for MG beret (~54)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101872495?time=1430809200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198101872495?time=1430964911 after

Seller is banned for scamming using alts, and the other sale (where this seller is the buyer) was for a smoking brown bomber (21)

Gonna take the 54 (still an outlier)

Additional:

Only other sale was a cash transaction (220 dollars) by DigitalTaco. 220 dollars = ~100 keys, which fits the range.

Sales at:

~125

Excluding the 55, making a range with the 93, 94 and 125, rounding the range to 95-125

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3