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Not much evidence given the fact there's only 1 active listing:
Seller at 130 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25935443
130 keys is the benchmark
Sold 125?: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25507744
Ummm, why 130 ref?
NOT AGAIN!!!D: Happened last time ;-;
youll need sales. and there are sales:
http://backpack.tf/item/3360240198
the one you linked sold previously and you can't use a buyout for the initial pricing of a hat. Also, there are 3 others with this effect somewhere.