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5 months outdated
Re-suggesting, forgot the check the histories of the sweets (which aren't coming from the same trade) on sale #2
16 in existence. 1 on market (duped)
Sale #1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25568382
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077216373?time=1429426800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077216373?time=1429599600
Could be sold with 18 keys for a duped Scorching Bonk Helm but histories aren't matching.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119933056?time=1429340400 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119933056?time=1429426800
30 keys pure with history matching with the previous owner of the Scorching Bonk Helm
Meaning that the GE Bonk Helm was QS for pure, then Scorching directly bought for 48 keys after. outlier
Sale #2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119933056?time=1429858800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119933056?time=1429945200
Sold for gifted DBD Geezer (outdated) + DBD Mann of Reason + spe KS Aussie Frontier Justice (the "sweets" aren't matching)
x = (16 + 21 + 12)*0.9 = 44 keys high-end
Average of sales on SCM for Justice was 12 keys at the time
Mini on the gifted Geezer ~ 16 keys :
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067948618?time=1430550000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067948618?time=1430722800
Sold for OF Sultan (no overpay for avoiding the double overpay)
Sale #3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25802670 Sold for Morning Glory Wet Works (outdated) -> 39*0.9 = 35 keys low-end
Mini on the Wet Works ~ 39 keys :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25865171
Sold for PE Beret -> 37.5 keys (no double overpay)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015035843?time=1429340400 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015035843?time=1429426800
Sold for 40 keys pure
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015035843?time=1428562800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198015035843?time=1429340400
Sold for 4 buds pure (21 keys at the time, outlier)
Sale #4
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097022858?time=1430550000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097022858?time=1430636400
Sold for Pro KS Scattergun + Uncraftable Flip Flops + #49 Liq Lid (unsure about low-craft items values)
x = (42 + 3.2 + ? )*0.9 = 41 keys
Average of sales at 42 keys on SCM at the time on the Scattergun (but here effect is Hypno-Beam, could be lower)
Conclusion : (30) ; 35 ; ~41 ; 44 -> setting a range of 35-44
Any pertinent comments are welcome.
recently sold one myself for 32 pure
Yeah you're my first sale, I only saw 30 keys but I considered your sale as an outlier (you QS it for pure for buying a Scorching one)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25267831