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Sale 1:
Sold with a Smoking Prancer's Pride for a Frostbite Swagman's Swatter
(82*0.9) - 13 = 61.7 rounding to 62 keys capping at 60 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25946449
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078648512?time=1431586800 (May 14th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078648512?time=1431673200 (May 15th)
Sale 2: (outlier)
1:1 with a Blizz. Gym rat
15 keys or something, definitely an outlier :P
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169817323?time=1428476400 (April 8th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198169817323?time=1428822000 (April 12th)
Notes:
Mini for the Frostbite Swagman's Swatter:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/555d70e2dea9e98a358b4579
Mini for the Smoking Prancer's Pride:
1:1 with a Blizz. Ketche
13 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155507251?time=1431068400 (May 8th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155507251?time=1431241200 (May 10th)
Conclusion:
This has apparently been sold to an anti-freeze collector, so I feel comfortable pricing it with the last occurring sale :D (60 keys)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008608496?time=1431241200
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25881168 - unsure on the sale, but the B/O was 40 keys for quite some time (i think a bunch of keys for burning prussian?)
I don't know how to incorporate that B/O since the sale is completely unusuable :/
I personally don't see anything wrong with going 40-60. My thinking is just that it was up for nearly 2 weeks at a 40 key B/O and that's the key thing.