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Seems lowww...
Idk, judge for yourself
Only Sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25302058 Sold for Stormy Stash
Stash was offered on Hive
X = 56*0.9
X = 50
Stash https://backpack.tf/item/1029426011
Hive https://backpack.tf/item/3181448812
"seems low" yet still proceeds to price it.
anyways,he was looking for a stormy stash + sweets. and that's what he sold for (there were sweets included,as seen by the last comment)
by looking specifically for the ss stash,he basically offered the hive on the stash eh.
Offers shows that this is a bit low, but this should be close.
As far as I can see, no sweets were added although comments says that the sale includes sweets.
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126684647?time=1428639410
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126684647?time=1428649200
However, I would agree to your last sentence. I would value the Stormy Stash in the mid-price instead as he sets the trade to be offered on the stash, therefore no overpay should be calculated, but this should be well close.
There is also a 3 months old sale at 50 Keys after overpay - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24663769
Anyways, from not looking at your sales, you actually need 2 sales to establish a range, unless they are in a collector's backpack, or there aren't any on sale in the market. To be honest, there should be a range on this unusual, as to see that this really is quite low. I will wait for another sale to happen before pricing this unusual.