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Sale 1
Sold for miami night tough stuff muffs (45-55) = 50 * 0.9 = 45 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034334484?time=1426057200 (March 11th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034334484?time=1426489200 (March 16th)
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/555ee4b1b98d88a47a8b457d
Sale 2
Sold for purple confetti party phantom (45-50) = 47.5 * 0.9 = 43 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989031107?time=1431154800 (May 9th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197989031107?time=1431241200 (May 10th)
Sale 3
Sold for purple confetti tyrant's helm (42) = 42 * 0.9 = 38 keys
Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141389999?time=1432018800 (May 19th)
Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141389999?time=1432105200 (May 20th)
Sold for green energy tam o shanter (32) and strange specialized festive sticky launcher (~10) = 42 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096760247?time=1427958000 (April 2nd)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096760247?time=1428044400 (April 3rd)
Sold for max's head = 32 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065593039?time=1426921200 (March 21st)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065593039?time=1427007600 (March 22nd)
Sale 4
Sold for duped circling heart samur-eye and ~3.5 key sweets = (58 + 3.5) * 0.9 = 55 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061533354?time=1431068400 (May 8th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061533354?time=1431154800 (May 9th)
Sold for circling heart batter's helm - 58 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996390625?time=1430722800 (May 4th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197996390625?time=1430809200 (May 5th)
Sale 5
Sold for circling heart milkman (open suggestion at 45) = 45 * 0.9 = 41 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025208249?time=1427526000 (March 28th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025208249?time=1427612400 (March 29th)
Sale 6
Sold for pro aussie axtinguisher (~11 keys on scm), 2 buds (10) and a strange festive sandvich (4) = ((11 + 4) * 0.9) + 20 = 34 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198065813459 user is outpost banned so can't see if it was a quicksell
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065813459?time=1426575600 (March 17th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065813459?time=1426921200 (March 21st)
_________________________
Offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25926441
dp front runner - outdated at 64
c9 dapper and bubbling drill hat - outdated at ~62
dbd nano balaclava and 20 keys - outdated at ~52
_________________________
Sales at 34, 38, 41, 43, 45, 55
The offers combined with the lower sale being someone who is banned on outpost (therefore less trade opportunity) suggest discounting the lower sale but keeping the higher one in. Other sales are fairly close and evenly spread, so keeping them all in. Using 38-55 as the range. Feedback welcome.