Sale 1

Sold for terror-watt brainiac hairpiece (28-31) = 29.5 * 0.9 = 27 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138240511?time=1432364400 (May 23rd)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198138240511?time=1432450800 (May 24th)

• Mini on brainiac:

  http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5562be6edea9e967178b47e1

Sale 2

Part of a bulk trade for a haunted ghosts team captain - not using for range but comes to ~39, as evidenced in this closed suggestion:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5551e72bba8d88711a8b4575

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070849213?time=1430031600 (April 26th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070849213?time=1430118000 (April 27th)

Sale 3

Sold for orbiting fire rebel rouser (45), vivid plasma football helmet (15), orbiting planets baron von havenpane (19), strange spec ks knife (~3), strange crossing guard (~2) and 15 keys = ((45 + 15 + 19 + 3 + 2)* 0.9) + 15 = 91 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053233649?time=1428562800 (April 9th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053233649?time=1428649200 (April 10th)

• Mini on vivid plasma football helm:

  Sold with ~1 key sweets for blizzardy hermes (16-20) = (18 * 0.9) - 1 = 15 keys

  
  

  Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130624165?time=1425715200 (March 7th)

  Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130624165?time=1425801600 (March 8th)

• Mini on orb planets von havenplane:

  No clear recent sales, using current price - 19 keys

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Current owner has a BO of 60, though I won't call it an unsold as it's only just gone up

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26037554

Based on the recent sale and the team captain sale, I think the lower end is more realistic here. I'm not going to use the bulk sale to set a range because it's inaccurate to price a small part of it that way, but it does indicate that 91 keys is an outlier.

Feedback welcome.