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Sale 1: (complex, outlier)
Sold a Strange It's A Secret To Everybody Private Eye for a Green Confetti Team Captain and 41 keys
(100*0.9) + 41 - 87.5 = 43.5
Calling it an outlier based on the seller and the fact that this is a complex sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25987173 B/O of 65
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071371521?time=1432191600 (May 21st)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071371521?time=1432278000 (May 22nd)
Sale 2: (outlier)
Sold for Cauldron Bubbles Tyrant's Helm, a Strange Festive Buff Banner and 5 keys
(61 + 2)*0.9 + 5 = 61.7 rounding to 62 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23824847
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008114236?time=1430118000 (April 27th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008114236?time=1430377200 (April 30th)
Sale 3:
Sold with 17 keys for a Molten Mallard Executioner
(181*0.9) - 17 = 145.9 capping at 90 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26015055 Had a B/O of 90, can be proven by my last suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5560b930b98d8875448b4616
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071371521?time=1432450800 (May 24th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071371521?time=1432537200 (May 25th)
Notes:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26041134 B/O of 160
Mini for the Green Confetti Team Captain:
Sold for a Scorching Noble
(126.5*0.9) = 113.85 caps at 100 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25975581
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122631490?time=1432018800 (May 19th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122631490?time=1432191600 (May 21st)
Mini for the Cauldron Bubbles Tyrant's Helm:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5560b387dea9e932318b4615
Conclusion:
Because of the high B/O (which does make sense considering he bought it for 164 in unusuals) calling the first 2 sales outliers and taking the final price at 90 keys.
90 seems to be the outlier here not 60 unless you show it had higher offers, 43 and 60 are closer.
Zapperzz: So after caping that at 90 I have a complex sale at 40, a sale at 62 and a sale at 90. The guy who bought it put it up for 160 on outpost. What should my range be, or is it too soon to price it?
A Delicious Cashew #GSWarriors: Either 90 or wait for another sale imo
http://bazaar.tf/trade/1298775 the sale 3 was an auction. dont know if it matters
Interesting! Don't think it effects the price though (poor guy who bought it :/)
Nope... 17 Keys was not added with the Scopers for the Executioner.
What was it then? I thought you asked him to add 20 keys with the Scopers. Are you just denying that you are in the history of those keys? http://backpack.tf/item/2960061382
You shouldn't call sales outliers just because a seller has a high b/o.
Oh, cashew told me to suggest at 90 but he didn't see my whole suggestion first. Should I resuggest at 62 - 90?
I haven't looked at this carefully. Just saying that your rationale for excluding sales is off here. It's possible they are outliers. If there are lots of offers >70 keys, then anything under 60 may be low. You'll need to look at some offers to help guide you.
Okay thank you for the advice polar :D I have a kind of weird situation here, the only offers I can find are here:
http://bazaar.tf/trade/1298775 (that trade was also sale #3)
That sale that capped because of the B/O here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26015055 , it turns out he had it listed on outpost, but took it down because he listed it on bazaar auctions, which requires you to not have it listed on other trading sites. So I'm guessing he took it down on outpost before that, and then people bid up untill the winning bid of 145. Should the sale still be capped at his old B/O of 90 on outpost then? (and people bidding on it probably didn't know about his previous B/O because he had deleted it from his old trade by then most likely) Either way there was an offer of 120 there besides the actual sale at 145 which I think makes the first 2 sales outliers.
I'd probably prefer a range in that case and value it at 90-145. But it's very possible the entire sale is an outlier.