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Meh.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25801972 - Sold for an Anti-Freeze Modest Metal Pile of Scrap (115*0.9 = 104 keys) (Outlier)
Sale 2
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037136414?time=1429340400
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037136414?time=1429483895
- Sold for a Circling Heart Trophy Belt (60 keys) (No overpay)
Mini for the Circling Heart Trophy Belt
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5558991eba8d88671b8b4577 - Taking sale 2 as sale 3 is outdated by now.
Sale 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25706101 - Sold for a Massed Flies Killer's Kabuto + Green Confetti Brain Bucket (17 keys) + Purple Confetti Master's Yellow Belt (36 keys) + Haunted Ghosts Soldered Sensei (38 keys) and definitely more than his BO of 70 keys.
Feel free to counter / support my proofs
well i need to say something about. i just made to sell this today for : p.e mining light(priced at 37keys 1 of 1 in the world)+ searing head warmer + orb. fire cowl , 37+39+24=100 keys. Proof:http://postimg.org/image/76ft0bk67/bda9447b/ , http://postimg.org/image/kmd5u4iw7/ , http://postimg.org/image/5dtsxtm1b/ Also i got offered http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26092195#latest prof.ks aussie scatter+ prof.ks aussie wrench+ c.bubbles festivizer. Im not sure if this wll change anything.
http://postimg.org/image/76ft0bk67/bda9447b/
Those prices are outdated so ye, doesn't change anything actually.
2 of them are outdated, the minig light was priced recently. Also about the 2 other im sure the market/ solds could say im right. Also i got 2 offers in the 100 range in 2 hours....
yeah, I doubt the outdated prices will drop the value by 30 keys
offers: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25428658
c. bubbles festivizer+pro ks aussie scatter+pro ks aussie wrench (old festivizer price, 38+36=74*0.9=67+whatever festivizer is worth)
80 keys (80)
those are on the duped one, your high end and declared outliers are coming from a buyout that was up for 3 days
Looking at some more sales.
1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26152009 Sold for Orbiting Fire Conjurer's Cowl + Searing Plasma Head Warmer + Purple Energy Data Mining Light. (This should be ~70-80 keys with overpay applied)
2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25801972 Traded this + ~12.3 keys in Sweets + 8 refs pure for Anti-Freeze Modest Metal Pile of Scrap (114.5 keys * 0.9 = ~103 keys). Making this ~90 keys. (You missed out ~13 keys in mixed here that was added for the modest)
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1430290800 (April 29th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125789695?time=1430377200 (April 30th)
3. Sold for Arcana Data Mining Light(62 keys * 0.9 = ~56 keys) + ~27 keys in Sweets + 5 keys pure. Making this ~88 keys.
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006136307?time=1430290800 (April 29th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198006136307?time=1430463600 (May 1st)
Mini on Arcana Data Mining Light
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25911607 Sold for Purple Energy Trencher's Topper(63 keys * 0.9 = ~57 keys) + ~4.5 keys in Sweets. Making this ~62 keys
So we have sales at 60, 70, 88 and 90 and another one possibly in the 70-80 keys region. I would go with a range of 70-90 keys here. This range of 60-70 keys is on the low side here.