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Fact: 90% of people will downvote this because they see I am a white belt and I have one
Credits to WilyZombie and Scaredy-cat for being so helpful
=============================================================================================================
Sale 1:
Sold for Stormy 13th Hour Das Gutenhukkeharen: 221 x 0.9 = 198. < 199
B/O on the trade was 110 so the price is actually 110: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25754385
Histories:
http://backpack.tf/item/3151124888
http://backpack.tf/item/3374784705
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125985288?time=1429599600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125985288?time=1429858800
Mini on Gutenhukkeharen: 245 x 0.9 = 220.5 < 221
sold for Aracana Tough Stuff Muffs
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/520806
=============================================================================================================
Sale 2:
Sold for Anti-Freeze Deadcone + Circling TF Logo Coupe D'isaster: ~ 50 keys (no overpay required as the Deadcone and Coupe were offered offered for the Greased Lightning
Histories:
http://backpack.tf/item/3374784705
http://backpack.tf/item/1656644247
http://backpack.tf/item/216646540
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1429426800
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1429513200
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5537c4b6b88d8846028b5720
MegaGenta talks about the Deadcone and Coupe prices here.
=============================================================================================================
Sale 3:
Sold for GE Chief: ~ 50 keys
Again it is explained in this vote: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5537c4b6b88d8846028b5720
=============================================================================================================
Sale 4:
Sold for 20 keys pure:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25615722
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066331075?time=1428303600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066331075?time=1428822000
=============================================================================================================
Sale 5:
Sold for Duped Scorching Hermes (82) + Earbud (12.5 keys) + sweets (worth 7.3 > 7 keys): ~ (82 + 7) x 0.9 + 12.5 = 92.6 < 93 keys
Our chat: http://i.imgur.com/MdrWEJY.png
His trade history: http://sta.sh/01412mtx79id
Mini on Duped Scorching Hermes:
Sold for: Duped Burning Flames Coupe D'isaster (54 x 0.9 = 49) , Green Confetti Gentleman's Gatsby (13.5), Green Confetti Waxy Wayfinder (15), Orbiting Fire Gentleman's Gatsby (13.5): (49 + 13.5 + 15 + 13.5) x 0.9 = 81.9 < 82
Our talks and gives information about the histories: http://i.imgur.com/B9mkbqE.png
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1432191600
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079275897?time=1432278000
Histories:
http://backpack.tf/item/1101022539
http://backpack.tf/item/1271731572
http://backpack.tf/item/1733763782
http://backpack.tf/item/927003922
http://backpack.tf/item/2598648671
Coupe sold for duped searing plasma YWN: 60 x 0.9 = 54 keys
http://backpack.tf/item/1518307455
http://backpack.tf/item/1101022539
Proof of my talk: http://i.imgur.com/PQuLps2.png
This was the closest thing I got to finding the price of the YWN.
Wayfinder sold for Orbiting Plantets El Jefe 17 x 0.9 = 15
http://backpack.tf/item/850355931
http://backpack.tf/item/927003922
Planets El Jefe sold for steaming Kabuto ~ 19 x 0.9 = 17
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3769509380,152,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3738884234,539,5
Kabuto sold for smoking Yellow Belt: ~ 21 x 0.9 = 19
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3653891773,110,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3649107904,152,5
OF Gatsby has no sales where you can tell what was traded apart from 2 in a multi unusual trade, so I am taking the buyout of the trade on outpost and backpack.tf making it 13.5, also it is a low tier hat and they rarely change from their backpack.tf price even if it is a few months outdated.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26022381
http://i.imgur.com/uAq5r38.png
=============================================================================================================
Sale 6:
Bought mine for: ~ 39 keys
http://i.imgur.com/o3dAERt.png
$87.6 < 88
From backpack.tf a key costs $2.28
88 / 2.28 = 38.5 < 39
=============================================================================================================
Conclusion,
Sales at:
110 Outlier
50
50
20 Outlier
93
39 Outlier
Taking 50 to 80 because it has sold very high and very low, but buyouts on the trades suggest that 80 is common for this hat back upped with some of the sales and sales have proven that 50 is also, and then the buyout of 60 would fit in here.
80: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25706646
80: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26051220
110: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25754385
60: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25819811
Constructive Criticism welcome,
I spend about 5 hours gathering all this data, and if you have any extra things that I missed please comment below, also if you have a better range please say below and give reasons.
If you can find any more minis please say so,
Have a good day
~M1LL3R
I don't think you can use BOs to set a high end? You can use them to rule out the higher sales but that's it I believe... :/
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25756967
Unsold at 80 for a month suggests it's too high
Your 50 sales (with overpay) should be 45 Keys each.
80 is an outlier.
Resuggest at 45 flat
Also ge chief isn't 50 keys, it's 37? :/
And sale 2 can't be used to price the greased because it was already used to price the dead cone...
Also should use paypal key prices for paypal sale which would make it more like 46 keys.
So the only valid sales are at 33 (37*0.9) and 46
Oh yea!
37 * 0.9 = ~33 Keys.
Either Resuggest at 33 - 45, 30 - 45, or just 45.
(Your pick)
Yeah, I'd do 33-45 I think, unless there's evidence the chieftan sale was a quicksell
I think what he meant was to say what Gent has said on the other suggestion.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25331451 - Offer of 4 Earbuds (32 Keys) + $46.65 (20 Keys) ~52 Keys
That's ok for a mini but idk for a suggested price? Maybe just discount that sale and do 45 flat then, would be around the value the chieftan would come to if you took 50 anyway.
you have to apply overpay on the cone/ coupe, they were offered on the lightning so if suggesting for them you dont need overpay
since you are suggesting for the lightning you need :v
Sale 2 should not be used - used for AF dead cone suggestion