Finally, I can price this

Sale #1:

Sold 1:1 for an Aces FR-0 (11)

11 * 0.9 = 9.9 keys rounding to 10 keys

Valuing as a low outlier

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043334980?time=1429340400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043334980?time=1429426800

Sale #2:

Sold 1:1 for a Blizzardy Bubble Pipe (26)

26 * 0.9 = 23.4 keys rounding to 23 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119440230?time=1431287428

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119440230?time=1431414000

Sale #3:

Sold with ~0.5 keys sweets for a duped Aces AA (19.5)

19.5 * 0.9 - 0.5 = 17.05 keys rounding to 17 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047855072?time=1431457765

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047855072?time=1431673200

AA mini:

Sold for a Steaming HWNN (19) + ~0.5 keys sweets

19 + 0.5 = 19.5 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145404930?time=1428897329

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145404930?time=1428908400