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Meh.
Sale 1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25872962 - Sold for a Green Confetti Engineer's Cap + 4 keys (13*0.9 + 4 = 16 keys)
Mini for the Green Confetti Engineer's Cap:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/556c8514b98d88ef5f8b4579
Sale 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25863121 - Sold with a Strange Killstreak Festive Stickybomb Launcher (8 keys) + Strange Festive Grenade Launcher (4 keys) for a Circling Heart Tippler's Tricorne (22 - 12*0.9 = 11 keys) (No overpay on the Circling Heart Tippler's Tricorne because he was looking for the specific hat)
Feel free to counter / support my proofs
For your second sale, ~2.5 keys more in mixed were added on top of the stickybomb launcher and festive grenade launcher.
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058569038?time=1430463600 (May 1st)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058569038?time=1430722800 (May 4th)
And also, i do not really know why you did 12*0.9 on the second sale. There really is no reason for doing that. The Stickybomb launcher has parts to it which makes it ~9.8 keys instead. This makes the sale realistically closer to 6 keys. This is a clear outlier.
Looking at some more recent sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26198334 Sold for Circling Peace Sign Private Eye(20 keys * 0.9 = 18 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26203255 b/o 20 keys Sold for Big Chief Cloud 9 + 2 keys pure. Cap at 20 keys.
Mini for Cloud 9 Big Chief
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26211247 Sold for Stormy Storm Crocleather Slouch (23 keys * 0.9 = ~21 keys).
With all the recent sales, 11 key is low here and because the sale should've been a lot lower than it should be, it is an outlier.
16-20 keys should be fine.