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14 keys then.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55609138b98d8870448b45dd
With an additional sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26077182 - QS for 10 keys + 2 keys in items.
So the 10-key sale is outlier.
Feel free to counter / support my proofs
Current seller at 12 keys for 5 days now http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26216283
And also, your 14 keys sale seems to have only been 13 keys. The last key's history doesn't match.
Backpack of seller
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009458322?time=1431414000
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198009458322?time=1431846000
Backpack of buyer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057134488?time=1431759600
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057134488?time=1431846000
With that said, you don't really have any evidence to support 14 keys flat since the sale was in fact 13 keys. I would go with a range of 12-13 keys here.