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This hat is going up... on a tuesday
Outdated by 2 months
Proof:
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26097982 (35 keys) ~ low end, duped tho
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24630922 (70 dafuq)
Solds:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198003310244?time=1429279423 (compared to day before sold for 36 keys pure + 2 buds. Keys were 5 keys, but since gifted, gifted ones tend to sell for 1 key less so thats 4 keys. So 8 keys. So thats a 44 pure sale)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065704401?time=1431382829 (compared to day after sold for 50 keys pure)
Your first sale is off, but it should be close enough to the number you reported. It sold to this guy:
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071353298?time=1429167600
From what I can tell, he paid 7 buds and 2 gifted buds (maybe sweets were added, I have no idea).
However, if nothing else was added, that should come out to roughly the same amount as your current low-end (1 key lower taking buds at 5 as you have, 2 keys higher taking buds at 5.375, which is what they actually were at the time).