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Lets get going :
Only 2 recent valid sales :
Sale 1 :
Before : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065349683?time=1429945200
After : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065349683?time=1430031600
Sold for a smoking snaggletooth : 11 keys
Sale 2 :
Before : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1431068400
After : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1431154800
Sold for an orbiting fire litlle buddy : 11 keys
Taking a flat price of 11
Hmm, the history of the Snaggletooth doesn't match (but backpack of the previous owner hasn't been often updated some days before the trade), a Snack Attack was added -> overpay on both
Concerning the 2nd trade, a few keys were added next to the Buddy : http://backpack.tf/item/2225164068 http://backpack.tf/item/3619805856 http://backpack.tf/item/3619805857
You'll need to apply overpay