"Lincoln"

I dunno, hes dead.. and a president..

Tried to price this a while ago. More sales now though. imagine the range if I wouldnt take outliers on this one

The sales

Sale 1:

Complex sale for two lantern stashes:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061374527?time=1428994800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061374527?time=1429097148 after

Cant use

Sale 2:

Complex sale for mallard pullover:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061374527?time=1428390000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061374527?time=1428476400 after

Cant use

Sale 3:

Sold for ?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073972403?time=1430340805 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073972403?time=1430340805 after

No outpost trade, I doubt it was for those few keys

Sale 4:

Sold for a haunted ghosts stove pipe (43)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25018488

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993888396?time=1423961518 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993888396?time=1423987200 after

0.9*43 = ~39

-> 39 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for grail rancho (~100):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137120386?time=1431241200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137120386?time=1431588837 after

http://imgur.com/LFB3bcn

Grail is currently being voted up, which will likely make this sale an outlier.

Sale 6:

Sold for duped TW robotower (54) + sweets ( ~2.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593?time=1431241200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086793593?time=1431738602 after

Cant find a proper mini on the duped tower, applying overpay to compensate for being duped (whereas I normally wouldnt, as I presume it was offered, since sweets were added).

0.9*(54) + ~2.5= ~50

-> 50 keys

Sale 7:

Sold for vivid thirst (~27) + 2 buds (~6) + 1 key

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162870871?time=1432510382 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198162870871?time=1432537200 after

0.9*27 + 6 + 1 = 31

-> 31 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for ?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26042986

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993962614?time=1432998103 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993962614?time=1433055600 after

no clue

Sale 9:

Sold for burning dapper (~76, gonna update this)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1431586800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1431696485 after

Sale 10:

Sold for pro ks aussie sniper (~46)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254968?time=1433142000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254968?time=1433286676 after

no overpay, mini in pure equivalent

-> 46 keys

Mini sniper:

http://imgur.com/aNHOOtQ averagely sells ~100-105€ => 46 keys

Taking 46

Other history changes have it vanishing, cant use those.

The sale is old, but its the only concrete sale that is not a bulk sale and is not a vanishing hat.

Conclusion

Sales:

- Complex x2

- (?) x2

- ~31

- ~39

- ~46

- ~50

- ~75 ish

- ~100+

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25966310 this BO easily renders the 100 an outlier, plus despite a ton of highball outpost BO's, none have actually sold that high (apart from this one)

Apart from that, taking a high and a low outlier, making the final range 39-50, rounding to 40-50 for convenience.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3