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http://backpack.tf/u/76561198057171057 sold for dad hazmatten + bubbling hard counter + 21k + sweets
hard http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26106794
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25930432 sold for burning cowl + 4k
cowl http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26019680
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26001370 sold for ra reggae
So, even taking the cowl at 130 (which is in invalid and frankly lazy mini), (130 * 0.9) + 4 = 121, which rounds to 120, not 125.
The Reggae is also ~120 after overpay.