Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 19.11 ref

Price Suggestion

~57.22 ref

2143 votes up

1421 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was marked as bad price range and closed Thu, 25 Jun 15 08:03:26 +0000 by neverclever.

The price range was either too broad or did not accurately reflect how the item was traded. Therefore, this suggestion has been closed.

Message left by moderator:

The mods left this open for a long time because we wanted to see how the steam sale affected the key prices and to let people gather additional evidence.

It is clear that there are still a lot of keys available for 19 ref. There's not enough here to justify raising the price.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

I'm going to do my best on this, first key suggestion. Please be nice with criticism. I believe I followed cooldown rule, ( <.33 = 7 days.) I will not respond to trolls.

Buyers at 19

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25767193

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26097865

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25578929 (Sell at 19.22)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24305218

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25711363

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25527358

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25931484

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26164962

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24423454

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26094444 (Currently unable to buy any, but useful for future.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25845829

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25918660

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26171019

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26006565 (Sell 19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26061186

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24608135

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26108912

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25701338 (Out of stock)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169382

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169941

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25873827 (Same person as above, not sure if valid.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26168929

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26116544 (Pays less in bulk)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24992955

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26070653

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26153312 (I checked, he is indeed able to buy 1.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26128013

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25155171

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25807636

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26112790

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26077998

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24809580 (He doesn't have enough ref right now, but he has a shit ton of keys. Keep eye on it.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26168455

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26063108

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26167646

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25808884

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26170782 (Left key quicksold.)

Buyers above 19

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26144425 (19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25258464 (19.33, doubt it's valid, outlier anyways.)

Classifieds

x1 19.33

x1 19.11

x~30 19

I'm going to say this honestly, I have no f*cking clue on how to gather sales from bots. If anyone could help me out I'd greatly appreciate it.

Sellers/solds 19.11

https://scrap.tf/keys - Selling 19.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24963530 (Sell 19.11, B: 19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25852445 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25463293 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26150060 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25855278 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25788259 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169852 (Young seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23954284 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26149957 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169840 (Young seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26163978 (Seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169524 (quick-sell I'm counting this as a valid sale due to other sellers.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169356 (Same as above, only 2 keys in BP.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169187 (Young seller.)

owns 1, downvote

i dont think buyers at 19 is good proof .. they are outliers .. while i agree that they show it is hard to buy at 19 anymore .. you need 19.11 buyers and more sellers imo

So 29 buyers, 1 quicksell, and ~30 classified buyers make 19 an outlier? To me it makes it a quicksell, which means it should be eliminated.

http://i.imgur.com/TlZ5phL.png - Sold at 19.11

Goddamnit why am I not included in this suggestion

Sold over 10 keys in one week http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26131018

Upvote

UPDATE:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24963530 - Now sells and buys at 19.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25463293 - Now sells at 19.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26150060 - Sold at 19.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25788259 - Now sells at 19.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169852 - Appears to have quicksold all 3 keys for 19.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26149957 - Changed price to 19, then quicksold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169840 - Quicksold at 19.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26163978 - Has not been bumped recently

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26169187 - Appears to have sold without a bump. (Specific key not in B.P.)

ANOTHER UPDATE: New sellers and buyers, these are getting old.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26203901 (B: 19, S: 19.22)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25463293 (Link is in suggestion, however they are now buying at 19 as well.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24773054 (Selling 19.11, claims to have 2 in stock. I'll followup.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26136720 (Currently has buying at 19 crossed out, will followup.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26014914 (Selling 19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26215109 (Buy for 19, not currently buying any. Will followup.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23954284 (B: 19, S:19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25788259 (Bot buying for 19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26063108 (Buyer at 19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25702827 (B; 19, S:19.11. Currently has 2 keys on stock, but not enough ref.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26214183 (Sell: 19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26218510 (S: 19.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26203095 (S: 19)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26219585 (Quicksell at 19)

UPDATE 2: 2

If I do not list it, the trade did not change.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26218510 - Appears to have sold about 4 or 5 at 19.11. Check bp.tf histories.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25463293 - Now buying at 18.88, still selling at 19.11.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24773054 - Doesn't have any keys in stock, has refined.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26136720 - Buying at 19 again, selling 19.22.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26215109 - Not buying any, has 1 key available.. (Checked B.P)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25788259 - B: 18.88 S: 19.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26203095 - Due to poor bumping, I can't tell what happened to this trade.

Classifieds update: Appears to be 3 well bumped sellers at 19, 13 well bumped buyers at 19.

SCM UPDATE:

Looks like SCM just recovered from the summer sale. skyrocketed like shit last night.

http://imgur.com/z8BCeAx

If there's a demand for keys, then the price rises.

Just sold mine for 19.33... if it helps...

http://s28.postimg.org/mzqgjdavx/keys.png

Although it's an outlier, it can help enforce the thought of a higher price. Thanks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umDr0mPuyQc

Your buyers are all at Bp.tf price already, and you need ALOT of sales to raise it, not sellers. :v

Good try though I guess..

Yea, the reason I'm trying to eliminate 19, is BECAUSE there are a lot of buyers at 19.

..Hm.. True.. I guess I sometimes forget how suggestions work.. ^^;

But still..I don't think those sellers will be enough..

I will tell you this. Steam Summer Sale is almost there so we will see the key prices go down again. There is no real point to accept this suggestion since people AREN'T buying them anymore for 19.11 ref. That was different last week. People now know that 19 refined is a "stable" price for now at least.

"I will tell you this. Steam Summer Sale is almost there so we will see the key prices go down again. "

Proof?

Have you watched the SCM for keys? ~$2.15 per key now.. About a week ago it was ~$2.30.

actually they are now $2.36 so that's not valid

people are SELLING at $2.15

In the store they are but not on the SCM. If you are able to get it cheaper, would you buy it cheaper or not?

1: Especially on keys, SCM's prices fluctuate greatly between $2.10 and $2.50. Of course there are morons selling down at $2.15 for a few minutes every day.

2: I have it up right now, they are selling at $2.37. Median sales are at $2.36. http://i.imgur.com/dQQwM7V.png

The Steam Summer Sale* just started, we will see :)

Actually, SCM went into beta about 3 years ago, on December 12, 2012. Started awhile ago, I believe.

I actually meant the Steam Summer Sale. My bad.

"Of course there are morons selling down at $2.15 "

Hey! I sold mine at $2.15 >:c

Just sold my key for 19.11 each.

Upvoted :)

guys you should probably se that the keys is selling for cheaper on market

No. Absolutely no one is selling keys at 10 refined.

How is this not on the active price suggestions list yet?

I'm assuming it's because of all the stupid suggestions up there right now. At least one of them should have been closed weeks ago, they are just giving them the special treatment because he's a super-suggestor.

well now its on the active price suggestions :p

now it is after those suggestions got closed/accepted.

I'm new to this so I have no idea if I should even partake in this vote...

Yes. Downvote it.

I don't think it's wise to blind-vote

No, it does matter on the proof. Always.

Yep. The Whopping 1 cent increase is going to destroy the economy.

Please keep comments constructive.

Just bought one for 18.66 http://imgur.com/FTLJmBZ

You have to realize that we are not increasing anything. Backpack.tf has no actual hold on the market, it's like a newspaper. It tells you what's going on in the world of trading, it doesn't dictate a sale price, but relays the most common one. To say that backpack.tf raises the price is to suggest that we have a means of forcing traders around the world to pay ONLY the prices that we find evidence to be the most commonly exchanged.

I wonder what would happen if bp.tf didn't tell what happens in the world of trading.

Everyone would either have to try and do their own research or just pay whatever price the seller and buyer think it's worth. Basically we'd probably have a whole lot of "scamming" going down, but it couldn't really be considered scamming anymore as long as everyone gets what they consUser to be a fair amount. There'd just be a really large disparity between separate sales of the same item.

what where you get greed from

"Man you guys are greedy for other stuff this week aren't we gentlemen?"

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1&page=1 still lot's of sellers at 19 on classifieds, as well as most buyers

19 still seems like a common trading point

Everyone at 19 selling is not bumped that well.

Also there's WAY too many buyers at 19. Meh.

yeah, in my experience with key suggestions all the sellers at the previous low end are usually sold nearly immediately. This might be a different case because keys have been pretty stable at 19 for a while

Can someone explain why is this still open after 10 days?

Currency suggestions are always open a long time - they need to see if the range really fits for awhile, instead of just 1 day.

maybe i'm wrong. who knows.

It's probably something like that...

But cmon! 12 days now. This is very fishy. We have seen key suggestions being accepted in 2 days, this one is special because...? x)

The mods should accept it or close.

this took 15 days~ or more to be accepted: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/553971f2b88d88153d8b456a

currency suggestions take longer to decide on.

There are still buyers at 19

that just shows 19 is low...

19 being removed from the range; the buyers support that.

~~Can't wait till you get banned lmao.~~

Any evidence to back up that claim?

In your suggestion, you have shown a bunch of 19 ref buyers, a bunch of 19.11 ref sellers, and a few 19.11 ref sales/buyers. The last (19.11 sales/buyers) has the most weight when raising a price, and it does not seem like your suggestion contains enough of it.

You are excluding 19 ref on the basis of it being a quicksell. However, what is more important than a quicksell price is the most commonly traded price. Keys have not risen in price since this suggestion opened means there are enough sellers to meet the demand of those quickbuyers. So if there are so many people willing to sell at 19 ref, why should this be 19.11 ref flat?

As of now, this current range of 19 - 19.11 ref is fine. There are not enough sales and buyers at 19.11 ref to say 19 ref does not happen often and exclude 19 ref from the range.

I got about 9 examples of sales at 19.11, and taking other's words to be true, we got about 20 occurring at 19.11 or higher.

But thanks for the criticism.

I'm trying to read this, but I can't put the comment together. Care to help, anyone?

He's telling everyone to ask for keys for cheaper, and lower the prices.

nah.

i bought my for 15 ref each http://screencast.com/t/Ozy2g77woO

52/52 would trade server again