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Sale 1:
Sold for a Duped Purple Energy Milkman and a Genuine Jungle Booty
Math
(40 + 1.3) = 41.3 rounding to 41 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25349785
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107949914?time=1427353200 (March 26th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107949914?time=1427439600 (March 27th)
Sale 2:
Sold for a Frostbite Greased Lightning
(42.5*0.9) = 38.25 rounding to 38 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25501731
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1428217200 (April 5th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036255543?time=1428303600 (April 6th)
Sale 3:
Sold for a Searing Plasma Cosa Nostra Cap and a Pro Rescue Ranger kit
(30 + 5)*0.9 = 31.5 rounding to 32 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977395790?time=1430463600 (May 1st)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197977395790?time=1430550000 (May 2nd)
Sale 4:
Sold for an Orbiting Fire War Pig
(68*0.9) = 61.2 rounding to 61 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25857981
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100895756?time=1430982000 (May 7th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100895756?time=1431068400 (May 8th)
Sale 5:
Sold with an Uncraft Summer hat and a Gentle Manne's Service for a PE Challenge
(84*0.9) - 8.4 = 67.2 rounding to 67 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25902935
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043673399?time=1432882800 (May 29th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043673399?time=1433487600 (June 5th)
Notes:
Mini for the Pro Rescue Ranger kit: ~5
3 sold for $11.46 on the SCM on the day of the sale
(11.5/2.4) = 4.79166667 rounding to 5 keys
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Professional%20Killstreak%20Rescue%20Ranger%20Kit
Mini for the PE Challenge: ~73.5
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5579f18bb98d88bd2a8b4593
Mini for the Duped PE Milkman: ~40
(126*0.9) - 46 - 30 = 40.1 rounding to 40 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005056455?time=1432450800 (May 24th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005056455?time=1432537200 (May 25th)
Mini for the Duped Milkman:
Conclusion:
Because the only one on the market has a B/O of 70 and because the most recent sales are the 2 highest, I’m taking the final range at 61 - 67 keys.
I'm not too sure on the range. Sales at 32, 38, 41, 61, 67.
Both 38 and 41 took two weeks, too. 61 didn't take nearly as long but 67 took nearly a month to happen. A wider range (perhaps 38-61, taking off the highest and lowest sales) might be most indicative of the value here
Well sale 3 (the 32) is incorrect anyway the histories don't match and the seller of the chieftan already owned the cosa previously and was just taking it on and off scm.
http://backpack.tf/item/275781464 chief
http://backpack.tf/item/2481514867 cosa
Appears to have actually sold for MG cowl http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25618928
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3691633212,465,5
Edit:
The "38" sale can't be used because the chieftan was used to price the greased lightning http://backpack.tf/vote/id/556d0b19b98d88ed518b4593
We're left with 41, 61, and 67
Ah okay, seems fine then. :)