Suggestion: Blizzardy Storm Eliminator's Safeguard at 12 keys

Price Suggestion

~48 keys

blizz

145 votes up

5 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 17 Jun 15 19:05:09 +0000 by aaroncsn.

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Comments

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Sale 1

[No OP Trade] Sold for Gold BK Wrench + Pro KS Big Kill

X = 3*0.9 + 9.9*0.9

X = 12

Kill https://backpack.tf/item/254814194

Wrench https://backpack.tf/item/3417344271

Guard https://backpack.tf/item/2577025161

Mini for Kill

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Professional%20Killstreak%20Big%20Kill Sold for $25.84 on June 6th

25.84 + 25.84/1.15 = $48.31

$48.31/2 = $24.16

Keys were $2.45 on June 6th

$24.16/$2.45 = 9.9 keys

Sale 2 OUTLIER

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25936286 Sold for Gifted Aussie GL

B/O for Safeguard was 17 keys

GL had no trade, presuming offered

X = 17*0.9

X = 15 keys

GL https://backpack.tf/item/3688133800

Safeguard https://backpack.tf/item/2577025161

Mini for GL

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25906092 Sold for Aussie Force + 6 keys pure

B/O for Grenade was 17

Force had no trade, presuming offered

X = 13*0.9 + 6

X = 18

X = 17 (B/O)

Force https://backpack.tf/item/3564082751

GL https://backpack.tf/item/3688133800

Stuff http://gyazo.com/2a025af8242af4bcb7279c4235d5cbf1

Seller to prove Sale 2 is an outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26162154 Puddy and his 6d B/O of 13 keys :3

Puddington's B/O was only up two days :O

Previous suggestion, apparently he made 3 different trades

Ah yeah, if you add up the time on all the trades, it makes sense (here's 5 days unsold): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26176020

I'd argue 15 keys is still possible even if Puddington can't sell his in a week (let's face it, it's a heavy hat, it's not got too much interest around it - they take their good time to sell sometimes) but oh well

i still hold dear that a B/O for less shouldn't really debunk a sale for above, it's the "It can always fetch that amount if you find the right buyer" sort of thing

I agree with you. Just because a hat can't sell in one week for 13 doesn't mean it can't sell in 1 month for 15. In fact, you show a sale at 15 showing that it is indeed possible.

I think it's okay to cap with b/os if there are multiple b/os at a certain price or if they have been sitting for a long time (month+). I don't like capping off b/os on single trades that are only a week or two old.

Sorry if i wasn't very clear and thorough with the previous suggestion. A b/o is a good reference point to indicate if a sale is an outlier or not but it shouldn't be the only thing to rely on when setting a range or determining an outlier. When i was reviewing the suggestion, I did look at some other sales but didn't post it up.

Sold for Festive Minigun (~11 keys at the time)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166649901?time=1431586800 (May 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198166649901?time=1431673200 (May 15th)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25777955 b/o 14 keys for 2 weeks. Probably sold for 14 keys in the end.

There was a sale at 11 keys and another sale that took 2 weeks to sell for most likely 14 keys in the end eventhough i can't really verify the keys through the backpack history. With that said, realistically, the average value of the hat should be about 12-12.5 keys. Hence the reason why i gave you the option of either 12 keys flat or 12-13 keys. And also, i was a bit iffy on the value of the grenade launcher considering it is gifted. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26021514 seller at 16 keys.

Thanks. 15 keys may very well be an outlier. And the range may very well be 12 flat. I just wanted it to be clear to sugarcube the reason why. A single b/o up for a week shouldn't be enough to cap the high end. However, multiple other sales combined with b/os taken in total can be enough to call something an outlier.

I don't think 15 is an outlier really

neither did i this is one of those instances where pricing the hat is almost impossible due to a mod word and then ideas of others

I got one for a SF minigun on the 16th of may and sold it for a pro ks grenade kit on the 4th of june