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http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55817079b98d8856528b4572#comment-55817933b98d8863528b4571 leaving this here for laughs
sale 1 outlier maybe
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159799709?time=1428634659 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159799709?time=1428822000 after
sold for bubbling ballcap 0.9 x 15.5 = 14 approx
sale 2
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091374014?time=1428649200 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091374014?time=1428735600 after
sold for steaming black watch: 0.9 x 26= 23 approx
sale 3 supporting proof in a sense
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046195526?time=1434178800 before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046195526?time=1434265200 after
sold for searing stout shako, won't be using this one since stout is outdated and i am too lazy to make a mini
sellers/unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25986284 33 keys 1 month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26050210 35 keys 3 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25921861 35 keys 1 month
This hat was used to update the steaming black watch http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5570e520dea9e99e5b8b4586. It shouldn't be used here again.
Another sale that is close to your suggested price.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26049600 Trade this + ~0.4 keys in Sweets for level 35 max head
Backpack of seller
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050190800?time=1432623600 (May 26th)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050190800?time=1432969200 (May 30th)
This is close enough.