Suggestion: Vivid Plasma Das Maddendoktor at 65 keys

Price Suggestion

~58 keys

vivid

106 votes up

11 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 15 Jul 15 18:41:40 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

"Zat was doctor assisted homicide!"

Counter to: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5586822fba8d8862108b46b2

Credits to ting_tanG

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold for 65 keys pure:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26083561

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068974226?time=1434265200 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068974226?time=1434351600 after

-> 65 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for phosphorus berliner bucket (~25) + logo bonk helm (~15)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26211025 BO 30, sold in a day

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070038700?time=1434351600 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070038700?time=1434438000 after

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198070038700 histories reveal the MN burglerre was used to purchase the bonk helm

0.9*(25+15) = ~36, capping at the BO of 30

-> 30 keys QS/outlier

Outlier and why:

- Sale 2 went down in a day and is significantly lower than the full pure sale

- Sale 1 is a full pure sale that took roughly 2-3 weeks

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26083561 has had an offer of a ML riding hood (~70 ish) and any of these hats + potential keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26178009

The hats in the last mentioned trade are all horribly outdated and the lucha is duped, but Im quite sure a duped heart lucha + adds would be more than 30.

Going for 65 flat

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

Dont you need 2 sales to price a hat?

No, you need two sales to make a range, this is a flat price. Plus this is pretty rare.

There are two sales. One of them is an outlier, so Im excluding it from the range

Which uh, leaves you with one sale, like 4 days ago. Is Django a collector? Also, multiple trades here: http://backpack.tf/item/3831502931

Eggplant > kamina:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26143856 appears to have been a bulksale for CSGO stuff. cant use

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225542436?time=1434069247

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198225542436?time=1434178800

Kamina > Hilbert:

Aussie FaN? Would be 13 keys, find it hard to believe that

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962835475?time=1434406379

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197962835475?time=1434438000

Seeing this course of events, Im guessing Hilbert sharked it from kamina, which would explain the QS for the two hats mentioned in the suggestion, which only proves the more that ~30 is an outlier.

It does not leave me with one sale. It leaves me with one sale I use to price it with. The 2 sale rule is meant to rule out basing the price on one outlier. There's an offer backing up the suggested value and there's multiple offers ruling out the QS

Still think you should wait a month to confirm, but that;s your call. Agree with your other points, and eggplant's listing had a b/o of 65 keys.

he doesnt have to wait a month if there has been more then 1 sale...

"Two sales are required to establish a range on unpriced hats. If the two sales are discrepant, a third sale is required to determine the outlier."

Two sales are discrepant here, so in a sense you are right. We should wait for another sale. But we have waited 24 days and we haven't gotten one. To keep the pure sale from getting outdated, going to make a call.