Suggestion: Death at Dusk Fruit Shoot at 27–30 keys

Price Suggestion

~132.5 keys

d@d

138 votes up

7 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sun, 21 Jun 15 21:35:51 +0000 by aaroncsn.

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Comments

3 Months Old Price

Sale 1:

Sold with 7 Keys + Sweets (1.38*0.9) for Miami Nights Fruit Shoot (15.5*0.9) + Max's Severed Head (23)

X + 8.25 = 36.95 Keys

X = 28.7 Keys (rounding to 29 Keys)

Before - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213829632?time=1434697200 (June 19th)

After - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213829632?time=1434783600 (June 20th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198213829632?time=1434783600&compare=1434697200

Sale 2:

Sold for Disco Beat Down Sergeant's Drill Hat (29.5*0.9) = 26.55 (rounding to 27 Keys)

Before - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059374348?time=1431586800 (May 14th)

After - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059374348?time=1431673200 (May 15th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059374348?time=1431586800&compare=1431673200

Sale 3: (Invalid sale, used to price Head Warmer)

Sold for Cauldron Bubbles Head Warmer (40.5*0.9) = 36.45 (rounding to 36 Keys)

Before - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119609795?time=1431500400 (May 13th)

After - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119609795?time=1431586800 (May 14th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119609795?time=1431500400&compare=1431586800

Outpost - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25949143

Sale 4:

Sold for Australium Medi Gun (25*0.95) + 2 Keys + Sweets (4.58*0.9) = 29.87 (rounding to 30 Keys)

Before - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076469786?time=1431414000 (May 12th)

After - http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076469786?time=1431500400 (May 13th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198076469786?time=1431414000&compare=1431500400

Outpost - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25853375

Sale 5: (Invalid sale; Quicksell)

Sold for Max's Severed Head = 23 Keys

http://i.imgur.com/TwGKu6B.png

Sale 6: (Obvious Outlier)

Sold with 10 Keys + Sweets for Professional Australium Sniper Rifle + Max's Severed Head

http://i.imgur.com/PDkeOVB.png

Conclusion:

3 valid sales at 29, 27 and 30 Keys. Taking a range of 27-30 Keys.

All feedbacks are welcome.

why sale 6 is outlier? can you count the value? because it was the brand new trade.

Assuming that Professional Australium Sniper Rifle are approximately 40 keys:

X + 11 = 40 + 23

X = 52

This would suggest that Death at Dusk Fruit Shoot would be 52 Keys, hence outlier.

Without that assumption and using the price of a regular Australium Sniper Rifle:

X + 11 = (32.5*0.95) + 23

X = 42.88 (rounding to 43 Keys)

Even without the assumption, the Death at Dusk Fruit Shoot would be 43 Keys, hence outlier.

If Im correct, the buyer from this trade QSed it for that max head, making both sales very fishy. Im fairly sure excluding both was a good call here

Even not counting the heatmaker and the vintage mask, it would still be an outlier due to what the other sales provide.

okay, im fine with that