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Sale #1
Sold with 5 keys for a flaming lantern Doctor’s Sack (outdated at 17 mini at 14)
http://imgur.com/a/rQt0l
He offered so no overpay required 14-4=9
Sale #2
Sold for steaming Safe’n’Sound (outdated at 16 mini at 13)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26170007#latest
13 x 0.9 = 11.7 -> rounding to 12
Minis
Sack
http://imgur.com/KsCgBhc - sold with 10 keys for HG Batters (25) 25-10 = 15
15 x 0.9 = 13.5 -> rounding to 14
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26266852 - quicksold for 11 keys
S’n’S
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26272299#latest – sold for dp honcho’s (14)
14*0.9 = 12.6 -> 13
Sales at 9 and 12
Some more sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26277928 Traded this + ~ 2 keys in sweets for smoking Liquidator's Lid(15.5 keys * 0.9 = ~ 14 keys). Making this ~ 12 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25931793 Traded this + ~ 14.4 keys in sweets + 2 keys for Demonflame Carouser's Capotain(36.5 keys * 0.9 = ~ 33 keys). Making this ~ 17 keys. Cap at b/o 16 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26270549 Traded this + 1 key for Stormy Storm Reggaelator(19.5 keys * 0.9 = ~ 18 keys). Making this ~ 17 keys.
So we have sales at 9, 12, 12, 16, 17. I would call the sale at 9 an outlier and go with 12-17 keys here.