Suggestion: Time Warp Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood at 160 keys

Price Suggestion

~144 keys

87 votes up

20 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 26 Jul 15 18:39:50 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

I've never done a price suggestion before :\

Thank you Kuuko and Ðε Ȥøȴεx² for double checking stuff

Only two sales recorded as far as I know, 1 of 1 hat.

-------Sale #1---------

Sold with a Fountain of Delight Battin' a Thousand for Scorching Festive Tree

Seller's bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012414439?time=1434783600

Seller's bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012414439?time=1435215600

Tree ~ 111 keys*0.9 = 99.9 ~ 100 keys

(100) - (31.5) = 69.5 ~ 70 keys

Mini for Fountain Battin'

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5584f986dea9e90f288b45dc

37 keys -> 30-33 (31.5)

Special notes about the sale, at the same time several keys go through Odd's backpack. These keys have histories unrelated to the trade in question.

This trade is deemed an outlier as specified at the bottom:

---------Sale #2----------

Sold for DP Medic's Mountain Cap + DBD Your Worst Nightmare + MN Brown Bomber + Bubbling Whirly Warrior + Orbiting Planets Burning Bandana + Blizzardy Storm El Jefe + G Fetti Bonk Helm.

Seller's bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991783701?time=1435474800

Seller's bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991783701?time=1435561200

(20)*0.9= 18 - mini price

(38)*0.9= 34.2 ~ 34 - updated

(54)*0.9= 48.6 ~ 49 - mini price

(12.5)*0.9= 11.25 ~ 11 - updated

(15)*0.9= 13.5 ~ 13 - mini price

(21.5)*0.9= 19.35 ~ 19 - updated

(18)*0.9=16.2 ~ 16 - mini price

Totaled: 160 keys

------Minis for sale #2-------

DP Medic's Mountain Cap

Very few sales, last priced at 18-28 ~ 22.5 keys

Seller has b/o of 20 keys

Taking b/o of 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26233393

---------------------------------

MN Brown Bomber

Sold with a Bubbling Grimm Hat for a Blizzardy Storm Killer's Exclusive.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111273937?time=1435302000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111273937?time=1435388400

(69) - (15) = 54 keys

Mini for Bubbling Grimm Hat

Very few sales, last priced at 14-19 ~ 16.5 keys

Seller has b/o of 15

Taking b/o of 15 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26318865

---------------------------------

Green Confetti Bonk Helm

Outdated at 17 keys, others on market are duped/haven't sold in a long time.

Sold for 18 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25667631

---------------------------------

Orbiting Planets Burning Bandana

Outdated price by about a month at 15 keys, hard to find accurate sales or any on the market, so we'll use a buyout.

Recent trade with b/o of 15 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25811277

---------------------------------

Final Sales:

160

To determine an outlier, previous offers on the ninja will be considered:

Stormy 13th Brigade + Steaming Pencil Pusher offered on the TW Ninja

http://imgur.com/6LRF9XO

(100) + (18) = 118 > outlier sale @ 70

---------------------------------

Mini on Steaming Pencil Pusher

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5583fb9dba8d883a288b4568

Appears sufficient with two accurate pure sales at 17 and 19.

---------------------------------

Final Pricing: 160 keys

please have mercy :<

Sale 2's backpack shouldn't be accounted here since it doesn't have all the evidence.

Buyer's backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435474800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435561200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26285693

It was then resold for a Burning Masque ~219 Keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435734000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061312726?time=1435820400

Burning Masque is a bit outdated. It will be the best if you can find a mini on the Burning Masque.

Anyways, about the mini's here...

G. Fetti Bonk Helm should be lower. There is currently a buyout at 16 Keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26463922

Will still probably be near to 160, so I'll stop. :P

Will need a range here. 160-220 might do if you can't find a mini on the Masque, but I'm sure you can find one.

Thanks for the comment. I did some checking over things again seeing as I forgot about this suggestion for a bit, but I'm not sure there is anything wrong with sale #2 at least at the time of posting, here is what I see in the histories: http://imgur.com/sIfnEkC . In the OP trade he says all remaining sold which would not include the festivizer.

Also for the masque -- I was alerted to this a bit ago but chose to disregard it as an outlier given the most recent seller's offers here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26397212. Unless Joe showed he had offers in the mounte's range before the trade closed (still has it in his bp), it feels like far too much of an outlier to include given the other two sales and offers.

Just my thoughts, thanks :)

Mini on the Masque:

[Sale #1] Sold for Ghosts Brown Bomber (230 Keys) w/ 15 Keys ~215 Keys

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1436425200

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198019254407?time=1436511600

Additional Proof: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26420694

Was Offered, therefore no overpay.

[Sale #2] Sold for Ghosts Pyromancer's Mask (158 Keys) + Flames Dapper (69 Keys) w/ Orb. Planets Masque (30 Keys) ~197 Keys

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1435302000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069493147?time=1435388400

♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥♫♥

Mini-Suggestions:

Ghosts Bomber: (200-260 Keys)

[Sale #1] Sold for 13th Hour Jefe (225 Keys) + Steaming Sober (~9 Keys) + Stormy Whoopee (13 Keys) + 11 Keys ~258 Keys

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122275273?time=1436425200

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122275273?time=1436566372

[B/O] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26558645 ~200 Keys

The buyout says quicksell, but since he bought it for 180 Keys, and 260 might be too high on this, might as well include it in range.

Haunted Pyromancer's Mask: (175 Keys)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55b1da87b98d88c9738b45f2

You can use 200-215 Keys on the Masque. After overpay will be 187 Keys which should suit 160.

So, please re-suggest at 160-190.

Fair enough. I was told about a couple sales involving the masque that put it closer to 300, but I see there is an unsold one for 250 on op.

there you go

upvote (◕‿◕✿)

Neat layout, huge effort on the suggestion, upvote ^_^

#RoadToBlackBelt

The second sale here should be correct. Some hats were immediately traded, thus owner was not on history.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111347658?time=1435474800 (June 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111347658?time=1435561200 (June 29th)

160 - 220 is a valid range.

he needs a burning masque mini first, and 160 came from a marked scammer? Not quite sure if that impacts anything here

OP should deal with that before resuggesting

The 160 most certainly occurred when neither trader was marked, I don't believe either is now - as for the masque - not sure where this 220 number is coming from it should have an updated pricing at I believe around 245. This felt like an outlier considering the trade I linked above from Joe, who had offers below 200

offers can't determine a high end to be an outlier, however if the offers were consistently above 160 then that could be outlier-ish?

160 was marked in April btw

When I check over steamrep the order of the ninja has gone from "Odd" https://steamrep.com/?id=76561198012414439 --> "Marty" https://steamrep.com/?id=76561197991783701 --> "Winter" https://steamrep.com/?id=76561198061312726 --> "Joe Dirt" https://steamrep.com/?id=76561197982569301. This can be checked here: http://backpack.tf/item/3791645109.

I don't believe any of the trades involving the ninja have any marked scammers associated with them, I could be wrong, but I don't believe so.

Also here is the most recent trade for the ninja (Which didn't sell and is still in Joe's backpack) :http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26397212

The only offers I see there are a Misty Skull Bonk Boy (updated at ~145)

and this complicated one: Vivid Plasma Ninja Hood (150; updated) + Steaming Reggae (outdated at ~22.5; mini at 18 due to prices on tf2op - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26541760 (quicksell unsold @ 3 days) + A fireproof diary (lol - updated ~14.5) + Pro KS FaN (ehhh honestly no idea likely, 6-10 keys based on aussie pricings) + a couple of ref in sweets ~190 give or take some

Between those two of roughly 145 and 190, it's difficult to say. However with the masque being priced at over 240 it feels like a small stretch.

Just my thoughts. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. ¯\_( ｡ヮﾟ)_/¯

bananafoot was marked at the time the trade occurred is what I'm saying

Ok something really strange just happened, the histories of numerous hats appear to have broken and switched. My original sale #2 is all funked up. Here's what I see now: http://imgur.com/YiXaIT1 . I genuinely have no idea what happened. Here's what I saw literally just yesterday: http://imgur.com/sIfnEkC.

Could something a scammer does force old hat histories to change? That KW Crones (mini price here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55a07106b98d88ef498b4589) has never shown up before until now and I don't know where the remaining hats went. Kinda confused now

that's weird, I'm not sure what caused that, but it doesn't look like it impacts the suggestion

sale 2 was kinda funky anyways

Well actually if we refer back to this: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26285693 it would appear sale #2 did occur as originally thought, checking the histories of those items on tf2outpost shows the clear line of 7 hats -> ninja (from marty) and then finally the 7 hats going to banana, our scammer.

Hopefully that clears things up :) It seems backpack.tf is having some problems remembering stuff or something

Edited: Ah yes this appears to be what happened, sale #2 is accurate and all, but for whatever reason marty was excluded from the histories of the hats as he sold them again very quickly?

Here's an example:

The Planets Bandana history on tf2outpost: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3869660140,30091,5

Bandana history on bp.tf: http://backpack.tf/item/3343036005

Not sure why that happened

Well, this happens when a trader trades numerous of stuff in a day. Backpack.tf only saves data on each day and not in each hour so sales might get funky some times. Anyways, Sale #2 did occur and it is correct.

Anyways, history doesn't match and bananafoot wasn't involved in that sale, so 160 is valid.