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Gonna try to do every unusual alphabetically by hat name/effect name that have recent sales. This is first.
Aces High A Rather Festive Tree
8 Months Outdated
Sale 1
Sold for a Cauldron Bubbles Head Warmer
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075368577?time=1434956400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198075368577?time=1435042800
40.5 times .9 rounds to 36
OUTLIER
Sale 2
Sold for a peace sign noble
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148354688?time=1434697200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198148354688?time=1434783600
22 times .9 is 19.8 rounds to 20
Sale one looks like an outlier given the unsold buyout at 30 keys here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26270376
Taking 20 flat.
good luck.
1 out of a million xD
You didn't research Sale 1 well enough http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25418646
Sold with 6 keys and was offered on Warmer
Tree was used to price the Noble too http://backpack.tf/vote/id/558ad5a9ba8d881a778b4573, you can't use the sale