Suggestion: Circling Peace Sign Pyro's Beanie at 11–12 keys

Price Suggestion

~14.5 keys

peace

135 votes up

46 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Wed, 08 Jul 15 17:08:22 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Compressing the ends of the cylinder, the extension disappears and we isolate a remnant plane. This is analogous to eliminating the high-end of a price range.

*Resuggesting to improve range and to update mini with an additional sale.*

Sales:

Sale no. 1

+ 4 Keys, sold for a Circling TF Logo Bonk Helm (15 Keys)

Result: 15 - 4 Keys = 11 Keys

Proof: [url]http://imgur.com/4aOrXLX[/url]

Note: Beanie was offered on the Bonk Helm, so no overpay needs to be calculated.

Sale no. 2

Sold for 12 Keys pure.

Proof: [url]http://imgur.com/pPHUJsz[/url]

Sale no. 3

Sold for a Disco Beatdown Electric Escorter (13.5 Keys) - Mini provided

Result: 13.5 * 0.9 Keys = 12.15 Keys, rounding down to 12 Keys

Note: Downplaying the other sale in the mini, which was for pure at ~10 Keys, but was outdated by 3 months, preceding the obsolescence of Buds as a currency.

Backpack of seller before: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969363424?time=1434870000[/url]

Backpack of seller after: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197969363424?time=1434956400[/url]

Note: Circling Peace Sign Beanie does not show in the historical view of the seller's backpack, but is evidenced in the history of the Unusual.

Backpack of buyer before: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103060345?time=1434870000[/url]

Backpack of buyer after: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103060345?time=1434956400[/url]

Mini for Electric Escorter

1. Seems to have sold for a Bud (~March 26, 2015) when Buds were 9.5 Keys according to the spreadsheet.

Note: At this time, Unusual prices were still in Buds, which was until recently a form of currency. Original price of the Escorter was 1.1 Buds, which is consistent with this particular sale. The reversion to Keys occurred on April 1, 2015 (decidedly not a joke). May be outdated.

Bud history: [url]http://backpack.tf/item/92860070[/url]

Backpack of buyer before: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036287213?time=1426143600[/url]

Backpack of buyer after: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036287213?time=1426143600[/url]

2. Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Stately Steel Toe (15 Keys)

Result: 15 Keys * 0.9 = 13.5 Keys

Note: This sale is more recent and will take precedence over the earlier pure sale.

Backpack of buyer before: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071995112?time=1435302000[/url]

Backpack of buyer after: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071995112?time=1435388400[/url]

Taking a range of 11 - 12 Keys, unless additional sales surface that contradict this range, thereby necessitating a readjustment. ~~Lower than I expected, but that possibly reflects the gradual decay of the Unusual economy.~~ Seems about right.

I was going to comment on the last one, but you closed it just before I had the chance.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25786921

^Escorter sold for 13 keys pure, and more recently than your other pure sale. Just further backing for your decision to omit 9.5 from the mini-suggestion.

Thanks. I have two sales for the Escorter and the one I have chosen to use (13.5 Keys) closely agrees with the pure sale of 13 Keys. Might use it, but at this point I feel the mini should be more or less satisfactory.

It's just support proof, I'm not suggesting you should modify anything.

If you did change the mini to 13-13.5, you would still round the Beanie sale to 12 after calculating overpay, so there would be no difference.

well since the escorter sold for pure there should be no overpay. so it would be 11-13

infact i'd go 12-13 due to how 12 sold quick

edit: i'd counter at 12-13 because i know the suggester won't agree than anything lower than 12 is a qs. but eh gtg . hopefully it won't be accepted when i come back

13 Keys was for the Escorter, not for the Beanie; there was a pure sale and an Unusual sale, which are in close agreement. Applying overpay to the range of 13 - 13.5 Keys, you would still round down to 12 for the Beanie. 2 days is quite quick for an Unusual, but I have seen some true quicksells sell within the hour. This range is consistent with all the sales I have compiled.

He posted his advertisement for the Beanie on June 29th, and it sold on July 2nd. What that tells me is that 12 is perfectly representative. As for the 11 key sale, the seller posted three advertisements, from June 22nd to June 29th. Plenty of time there as well.

11-13 might be ideal, but I really don't think it's necessary to counter-suggest over a half-key difference in the average. Your call though.

Well, I did some further research into the matter. He apparently bought the Escorter for something around 9 Keys, in pure. Can't be completely certain, however. He might have added some metal as well, but it would not be very consequential and could probably be ignored with rounding. I could find no other items being traded for the Escorter. One possibility was adding items and having mixed, but that was not the case.

Here is the backpack of the buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156534036?time=1430204400

Here is the backpack of the buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156534036?time=1430377200

The value of his inventory went up by 480 - 343 = 137 Ref; I would presume most of that happened with the acquisition of the Escorter. Back then, Keys were ~18 Ref and increasing. 137 Ref / 18 Ref per Key = 7.6 Keys. Of course, there were clearly other trades that occurred during that time period, but I do not think the Escorter sold for 13 Keys pure. From what I can tell, it sold for ~10 Keys at most. You may have other clues and evidence that I do not have.

It was 13 keys.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053172418?time=1430031600 - Seller's backpack before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053172418?time=1430377200 - Seller's backpack after

Sort the "after" link by time. The 13 keys grouped together are the keys in question. Some of them don't register as having come from Louis, but the item IDs when Toreutic acquired them reveal that they all came from the same trade (assigned #s 3729598118 to 3729598061 when they entered Toreutic's backpack, while the Escorter was given item ID # 3729598055 when Louis acquired it).

Sorry for not just posting all of the links earlier, it would have saved you some time spent researching. I've also looked through a number of the seller's trades over my time creating/reviewing suggestions here, so I had some knowledge of the seller's tendencies. He pretty much always gets his B/O or close to it.

Also, speaking from the perspective of a more experienced price suggester, would you recommend me to close this price suggestion and resuggest with the adjusted range of 11 - 13 Keys or keep it as it is? Escorter sold for pure, but overpay would still apply for the Beanie. Beanie would be 12 Keys from that sale, since overpay accounts for reselling the Unusual, regardless of past sales. 11 - 12 should be consistent with and representative of all the sales I compiled.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/

^ Check out Polar's post here from February 16th. It discusses some of the variables relating to how overpay should be applied in suggestions.

Basically, application of overpay is somewhat up to the discretion of the suggester. In situations like yours where the mini is based on pure sales, some suggesters will not apply overpay when assessing the value of the sale that required the mini-suggestion (so no overpay on the mini, and then no overpay on the Beanie/Escorter sale either because the mini was in pure). They do this because they see it as analogous to applying overpay on pure.

It makes a reasonably small difference here, and the suggestion would probably pass with either range given the sales presented, so my advice would be to choose whichever you think makes the most sense.

Exactly right. It is at the discretion of the suggester. Is it fair to value the escorter as a pure equivalent of 13 keys just because it sold for 13 keys pure? It took Toreutic more than two weeks to sell it for the 13 keys. It's not really appropriate to value it at exactly 13 keys pure since it's not exactly a pure equivalent.

Now if the escorter sold in one day for 13 keys, I think you could make a stronger case that it should be valued at 13 keys at the very least.