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I recently bought for around 85 in items and unusuals.
Paid a knife storm stove pipe, blizz sober + some sweets including a vintage fro painted hue.
Proof:
http://i.imgur.com/WBjrbk4.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/wjXLPC9.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Wx0d3kJ.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/3p5e4gK.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/NqVGaau.jpg
68+15+ about 2 keys in sweets = 85*0.9 = 76.5 rounding up to 77
Mini on the stove pipe.
Recently sold for a SBTWC sergeant's drill hat sums up to 89 keys in sale.
History of backpack.
Before the time of sale: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055804717?time=1435215600
After sale: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055804717?time=1435388400
Screenshot of the trade: http://i.imgur.com/BH8dLjK.png
89*0.9= 80 overpay
Here's an old sale but it also sold for 2 Flies Racks on Apr 10th
Mini for Private
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25604102 Sold for 2 Flies Racks
X = 33*0.9 + 33*0.9
X = 59
Rack 1 http://backpack.tf/item/3591541106
Rack 2 http://backpack.tf/item/919937030
Private http://backpack.tf/item/2047291046
Right, I have no idea why did you do a mini-suggestion on the Stove Pipe if you just valued it at 68 Keys at the end.
Anyways, valuing the Stovepipe at 80 Keys is way too high. Seems like the guy likes overpaying as well: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25807610
A mini on the Stovepipe:
Sold for a GE Samur ~68 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067163843?time=1435300016
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067163843?time=1435388400
GE Samur was then sold for 68 Keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26018467
Currently has B/O of 80 Keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26630844 & http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26463665
Also, as Face has said below, Sober needs a mini as well.
Sold for Blizz Scotch Bonnet (11 Keys) + Sweets (~1 Key) ~12 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167587658?time=1436140870
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198167587658?time=1436252400
Therefore, the total of your sale should be 68+12+2=82*0.9= ~74 Keys
Of course, there are also other sales as you've said below.
Sold for Bonzo Danger (131 Keys) w/ Frostbite Whirly (72 Keys) ~59 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059523054?time=1434338927
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059523054?time=1434870000
Should be offered on the Danger, therefore no overpay on Danger: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26137149
Bonzo Danger: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/55a75261ba8d88511a8b48e9 (120-142 Keys)
The other sale is quite complex, avoiding it should be best.
Looks like another was sold for a C9 Rebel (22 Keys) + Steaming Glove (14 Keys) + Pro. KS Aussie Blut (~15 Keys) + 3 Keys ~53 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119556784?time=1433660400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119556784?time=1433798516
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,3835160238,388,5
Mini on the C9 Rouser:
Sold for G.Fetti Thirst Blood ~22 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090822133?time=1435561200
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090822133?time=1435647600
Mini on the G. Fetti Thirst Blood:
Sold for Stormy Storm Human Cannonball ~22 Keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137889680?time=1431154800
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137889680?time=1431759600
Another was sold for a Duped Burning Dapper's ~61 Keys (Using Clean Price*0.81)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110986871?time=1433660400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110986871?time=1433746800
So, sales are 53, 59, ~61 & 74 Keys, I would do 53-61 Keys.
Your sale should be an outlier considering that 68 Keys on the Duped Knifestorm Scotsman's Stove Pipe might be still high even at 68 Keys.
Sober is outdated.
Also, the other sales not usable or something? http://backpack.tf/item/2047291046
Extra proof:
GMSOD payed Antifreeze Snaggletooth + Duped Gfetti Phantom + Blizzardy Grimm Hatte = Beams Jeecap + Poisoned Shadows Private Eye + 1 Keys
"If all of them were clean, it'd still be (91+45+20-66)*0.9 = ~80, but youd need a mini on the phantom" Creds to foamy
Sale of 80 in overpay
Nomad said he bought it with a bonzo danger but seller added a frostbite whirly
So basically 152 - 80+70 = 4 keys overpay? idk what to do with this.