This weapon deserves a slight drop.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds?item=Lugermorph&quality=3&tradable=1&craftable=1&page=1

Classfield Sellers (below mid bp.tf price): 1x 4.68 keys, 9x 5 keys, 1x 5.06, 1x 5.17

^Most of the above even include free spec/basic killstreaks^

Outpost Sellers (below bp.tf price):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26432956 - 4 keys, 10 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26395518 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26331848 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26395310 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26434434 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26434026 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26395629 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26432746 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25440896 - 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26387666 - 5 keys

Unsolds at or above mid bp.tf price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26399235 - 5 keys 13 ref, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26397076 - 5.8 keys, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26160995 - 6 keys, 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26144848 - 6 keys, 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26045425 - 6 keys, 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26352141 - 6 keys, 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26319752 - 6 keys, 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26404069 - 6 keys, 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25182017 - 7 keys, 4 months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25935698 - 7 keys, 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26330823 - 8 keys, 1 week

A lot of sellers at 5 keys, so taking price as 5 keys flat.

Hope I provided enough evidence to support this drop