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A majority of people were selling the Invis Watch as part of a spy set so I apologize for the lack of proof.
Classifieds:
http://i.imgur.com/8L2UQXC.png
Sellers/Solds at 3 Keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26418384
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26440375
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26380421
Sellers at 4 Keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/250464586
He does have solds for 3 keys
My gawd, I am blind, ignore all of this
The last link of the sellers/solds at 3 keys was actually sold for 2 keys, so there are no solds at 3
EDIT: So instead of 3 keys flat it might be better to consider the price buyers are willing to pay.
Buyers at 2 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26407529
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26437399 ( 2 csgo keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25814471 (reseller)
Buyers at more than 2 keys: See classifieds: http://backpack.tf/stats/Strange/Invis%20Watch/Tradable/Craftable
Your proof is lacking, but your sellers at 3 keys have sold theirs and a click glance at Classifieds supports this price.
Sold my for 3 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26448710#latest
You should separate your sales from your sellers, and you normally would need more sales.
Sold mine for 3 keys.
http://i.gyazo.com/b50c7c41cfed4cf561ec52552240b1e3.png